Sunday, August 29. 2010Link WeekI used to do these extra link collections, then stopped when I decided to comment on links more often. Still, I'm not getting to everything I want to note for future reference, so I'll try it this way on Sundays.
Thursday, August 12. 2010TrueGlenn Greenwald, on Jeffrey Goldberg's Atlantic article "Israel Is Getting Ready to Bomb Iran":
Of course, most Americans won't see that, because we lack the ability to imagine how other people see things. We're not even very good at understanding each other.
This isn't even a case of putting our interests ahead of theirs, as "realist" foreign policy wonks suggest we should do. It's more a matter of forcing our hypocrisies onto others so we can avoid facing up to our own problems. David Frum (quoted by Glenn Greenwald after Obama press secretary Robert Gibbs said "the professional left . . . should be drug-tested"):
Frum tries to pretty this up a bit. If "Repub pols" so feared the GOP base, they woundn't work so hard to push its buttons, but then the GOP base is usually satisfied to get out and vote then stay out of the way while the pols go about their main job of servicing the rich. The "Dem pols" don't have it so easy because the "Dem base" actually has reasoned interests and concerns in conflict with the interests and concerns all pols face day to day -- the lobbies, the media, etc. -- which often makes the base inconvenient. Of course, Gibbs wasn't talking about the base. He was talking about pundits who care about actual issues regardless of whatever's most tactically convenient for Obama. Greenwald quotes Bob Herbert: "Policies that were wrong under George W. Bush are no less wrong because Barack Obama is in the White House." That seems like a pretty sober statement to me. There are more than a few examples; even some, like the surge in Afghanistan, where Obama has outdone Bush, and some of these (maybe not Afghanistan) are retreats from his campaign pledges. It shouldn't be surprising that Obama gets some flack from people who supported him in 2008: he's fallen way short of their hopes, he's fallen short of his promises, and he doesn't seem to be doing a very good job of what we desperately need from him, which is to keep the Republicans out of power for the next 2-6 years. Going back to the top item above, one thing that nearly all of us expected from Obama was to do a better job than Bush of sorting out our differences with Iran. That hasn't happened, and he hasn't excluded the possibility of doing something far worse. Sunday, April 4. 2010Linking InHaven't had much time to post lately. Not sure I've had a lot to say, but I've been distracted on other things. Finally upgraded my main work computer from Fedora 6 to Fedora 12, which took quite a lot of tweaking to get it all going. I'm back to running Firefox on it, experiencing none of the Javascript meltdowns that had plagued the old browsers. Also running Ad Block Plus, Flash Block, and Flash Killer: I figure the latter two will make it tolerable to run some Flash objects, which I had banned a while back for corrupting and ultimately crashing browser sessions (as well as being a genuine nuissance). Also upgraded Ubuntu on my laptop, so everything but my old gateway box is running up-to-date software. (The Windows box is still running Vista, and I'm unlikely to move it forward as long as it is getting updates, which seems to be the case. I only use that box for some media things; not for real work.) The old gateway box is due to be phased out: next step is to move mail off it, then some local websites, then local file storage; finally, to replace the machine with a new dedicated firewall box. The updates will also make it possible for me to build some new websites that will eventually be moved up to the server, once I get it upgraded. The server is actually the biggest problem, as it involves replanting a dozen websites. Also took off to go visit my 95-year-old aunt. Plus we've started some more construction projects: repainting and adding new storage to the bathroom and a small bedroom upstairs. Hope to get that all done within two weeks. Got the lumber and most of the hardware already, plus some of the paint -- at least the stuff leftover from the kitchen. So those things will keep me distracted. Meanwhile, some links:
Sunday, September 20. 2009Sunday PapersPicked up the newspapers this morning. The Wichita Eagle had better things in it than the New York Times. First, Richard Crowson's editorial cartoon:
The cartoon was also reinforced by a letter from Chris Darnell, titled "What Choice?":
They also have a long piece by Les Blumenthal of McClatchy, Tanker bid rhetoric heats up in Congress. This is the $35 billion boondoggle contract to build new tankers for the Air Force, a scam that was originally cooked up by Boeing to extend the life of their obsolete 767 airliner assembly line, which has now turned into a political tussle between Boeing and Northrup, the latter the US front for Airbus. Kansas politicians have always dutifully lined up behind Boeing and its promise of 500 (originally 1000) jobs for Wichita. (I mean, where else can you get a jobs program for only $70 million per job, a feat so awesome even Republicans get stimulated.) Each side has their bought representatives -- Sen. Richard Shelby the most vocal for Northrup, while Kansas Rep. Todd Tiahrt, a Boeing employee until he was elected to Congress, is so obsessive about Boeing tankers that Bush nicknamed him Tanker Todd. On the other hand, Tiahrt's stock at Boeing seems to be dropping: recently Boeing announced that if they get the contract they may do the work somewhere else than in Wichita -- depends on where they find the political clout to land the deal. In that case the jobs payola for Wichita will probably turn out to be negative: once the Air Force decomissions its aging KC-135 tankers (and even older B-52 bombers), there will be no reason to keep Wichita's McConnell Air Force Base going. No one here seems to grasp the jobs-value of keeping old planes flying where the only skills to do that are here, versus buying a bunch of unneeded new planes that can be built and serviced somewhere else. Still, nobody's asking the real question, which is why do we need or want a new generation of tankers in the first place? The main thing they do is make it easier to get involved in foreign wars. You would think that a president who promised to change the way we think about war would start by changing the way he thinks about subsidizing the war machine. Speaking of which, the New York Times has an op-ed by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, A Better Missile Defense for a Safer Europe. The tanker deal is small potatoes compared to missile defense, the grandaddy of all war industry scams. It has been a bad idea ever since Melvin Laird put it on the Republican agenda: insanely expensive, brazenly aggressive, and flat-out unworkable. Obama could have killed it off once and for all, but instead he merely scaled it back and tried selling that as "smarter missile defense." Gates, who's done his share over the years to keep it going, puts it this way:
He then goes on to hype the Iran threat, at a time when the usual hawks are clamoring again for bombing Tehran. While many progressives are elated that Obama cancelled installation of missiles and radars in Poland and Czechoslovakia that Bush had planned for little purpose other than to irritate Russia, I find Obama's relatively sane plan disappointing. Strategic missile defense is one of the weakest pillars of US defense posture, a clearcut case where one can explain that the technology cannot and will not work, and that the only viable options are non-military. In playing along with this game, Obama is missing a prime opportunity to effect the sort of change he was elected for promising. Plus c'est le même chose, jamais change. Tuesday, August 18. 2009Browse NotesTrying to clean up my virtual desktop, closing browser tabs on pages I opened up but hadn't done with. Some quick notes:
Wednesday, July 29. 2009Cops and NeighborsThe Wichita Eagle can't let go of the Henry Louis Gates case, at least on the opinion pages, with Cal Thomas and Clarence Page weighing in today after Leonard Pitts earlier this week. It's not like they have nothing else to talk about -- health care? Afghanistan? -- but this hits their comfort zone. Not clear whether it's a teachable moment, but it's a conjecturable one. Still, I have yet to read a thing about the "concerned citizen" who called the cops on Gates -- only occasional comments accepting that the call was proper. Still, I have to wonder, what sort of neighbor pays enough attention to notice Gates prying his door open but hadn't paid enough attention to know who was living in the house? One reason this occurs to me is that I know of another recent case, across the river in Boston, where someone sicked the cops on a friend who had come to town to help out on a move. The charge -- that he had a gun -- was purely fictitious and vindictive, called in by a drunken ex-girlfriend of the movee, but the result was that my guy was cornered and shaken down by cops waving their pistols in his face. They cleared it up quickly, sent him on his way, and had a talk with the woman who filed the false complaint. But you can't say that no harm was done. I know that I, for one, wouldn't have regarded the cops' guns as any less lethal or threatening as the guns of the robbers who broke in on us a few years back. OK, my examples don't have a race angle, whereas the Gates case does. My own view is that most likely the cops were just being cops, and they would just as readily have pushed a white guy around as they did him. The difference is that Gates stood up for his rights, whereas I, for instance, would have figured that the safest way out of the problem would be to cower under their bullying. I think the race angle comes two ways. One is that Gates knows the whole story of emancipation and struggle for civil rights and managed from that to draw the courage to stand up for his rights -- something the cop couldn't handle. The other is the curious neighbor who caused this incident. Maybe we're stuck with cops being cops, but we should pay some attention when neighbors cease to be neighbors. Update: Not sure, but I thought I overheard something about the person who sicked the cops on Gates on the TV news tonight. Walked in and saw a rather sorry-looking woman behind a bunch of microphones making excuses for herself -- so maybe that part of the story is finally getting examined. But before I figured out what was going on, the report cut to Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh complaining that Obama doesn't like white people, and someone I didn't recognize defending Obama by listing a bunch of white guys (most or all of whom are Jewish). This all strikes me as coming rather late in the day and lacking, uh, credibility: are they trying to tell me that a guy who works his way through Harvard Law, spends four years in the US Senate, and gets himself elected president of the United States has problems dealing with white people. Seems more likely to me that the problem with Beck and Limbaugh is personal. Saturday, June 27. 2009Taxes and Other LinksMatthew Yglesias: The Next Tax Revolt: Had this stuck in a window for a week now, and didn't want to lose it, even though I don't have time to dig into it. Interesting point:
One thing that seems to be a general rule of US tax policy is to make taxation as visible, and therefore as painful, as possible. This actually runs counter to one of the basic (and oft-repeated) considerations in taxation: the belief that taxes disincentivize behavior. This is even considered a selling point for sin taxes. But if taxes are such a drag on the economy, it would make much more sense to make them less visible, as well as to focus them on cases where disincentives are trivial or non-existent -- e.g., taxing dead people. For the living, the least painful time to tax is whenever a transaction occurs: when you buy and sell something, or when you pay someone a wage or other remuneration. With few (if any) exceptions, the robust tax base countries Yglesias favors raise most of their taxes through a VAT, which (unlike American sales taxes) is generally buried within the cost of the purchase. VATs raise prices, which has some negative effect on demand, but they don't hit you out of the blue like property taxes do. It also helps if the burden of tax collection is placed primarily on business, which used to be the case in the US but is less so now: it is both less visible to most people and it fits in with accounting procedures that businesses need to do anyway. I can't vouch for Yglesias's assertion that the US tax code is relatively progressive compared to other countries. One thing that is certain is that it is much less progressive than it used to be. There are a lot of ways that progressivism could be used that aren't now. In particular, I would make both corporate income and VAT taxes mildly progressive based on company size: a break for small and especially new competitors and a brake against WalMart-sized monopolies. I also think that unearned income -- interest, dividends, capital gains, gifts, estates -- should be taxed progressively according to total lifetime gains: a break for anyone starting to build a nest egg, and a brake on excessive accumulation. Of course, there's no point raising taxes unless you plan on spending the revenues on something useful. I can come up with a long list there, too -- subjects for many future posts. Getting ready to take a vacation of sorts. A long road trip, anyhow. Some interesting articles that I had kept open with some vague notion of writing something about them, but now will have to pack up:
By the way, Iraq is getting bloody again, with over 200 civilian deaths this past week. I've just slogged through Thomas Ricks's Surge-celebratory The Gamble, and it's worth noting that the intelligent people behind the strategem -- a group excluding politicians like McCain and Lieberman, pundits like Kristol, and self-appointed experts like Fred Kagan -- never saw as anything more than a beachhead that would depend on significant political reconciliation to secure. The latter didn't happen for a lot of reasons, and now it's closing. Of course some people, including Ricks in his prognosticating epilogue, will attribute this to the imminent US withdrawals, implying that we can fix the problem by launching Surge II. But the fact is that there will always be a day of reckoning when US forces leave, and putting that off tries the patience of everyone in Iraq who wants to get this war settled. The idea that Iraq is a "forever war" is stuck in the heads of a few American hawks who invested heavily in it, but it's plainly absurd to most Americans, who sooner or later will manage to pull the plug. When that happens, Iraq will sink or swim. I've always felt that Iraq's odds would be better if the country is not tied to the dead weight of American imperialism. Nothing that has happened, including the adjustments Petraeus and Odierno made, has changed that. Tuesday, April 28. 2009Yglesias DayI envy Matthew Yglesias's ability to crank out a dozen-plus blog posts per day, but he's mostly going with whatever the day throws out at him, and his added value is hit and miss. Today was dominated by the news that Sen. Arlen Specter decided he'd rather be a Democrat, so Yglesias came up with a bunch of posts revealing how little he's had in common with Democrats over his career. Yglesias's term for Specter is "flexible." Sounds more like opportunist. We have in the past seen Republicans turn into pretty good Democrats -- Wayne Morse is still the classic. I doubt that Specter will be one, although it wouldn't hurt for him to start keeping better company. Matthew Yglesias: Financial Innovation and Financial Compensation: Cites a Paul Krugman column, citing in turn a Ben Bernanke speech about how innovative the financial sector has been. (Bernanke cites three big innovations: credit cards, overdraft protection, and subprime mortgages. For some reason he forgot about derivatives, which some wag described as a financial weapon of mass destruction.) But the most important thing here is a chart from Simon Johnson showing the financial sector's percentage of all US business profits over time. As late as 1980 -- the year Reagan was first elected -- it stood at 7%, admittedly depressed from the past 20-year average of 10-15%. It increased steadily from then, peaking over 40%. To some extent this represents decline in other sectors, like manufacturing, but it's not as if other sectors, like health care, haven't made money at the same time. Still, the profit levels here are suspicious on multiple counts. First, they suggest that finance is not subject to limits of competition. In most industries, when profits rise, competitors are willing to take them down. It's not like there aren't plenty of banks, so why no competitition? I don't have an answer to that. The peculiar mix of lax regulation may have some sort of effect here. Shoddy accounting is also suspect. Then there is politics: clearly the finance industry is very well connected with both parties and intimately represented in the government. The one thing we can be sure of is that the profits didn't get reinvested in the real economy, which is one reason so much ado turned into nothing. Matthew Yglesias: McCain: Bush Should Get Off The Hook -- Just Like Nixon: It's easy for a Republican to say that Ford did the right thing pardoning Nixon so we could "move on": "we" in that case was the Republican Party, which cleansed of Nixon's sins was free to subject us to Ronald Reagan. Reagan's administration was, if anything, more criminal than Nixon's. Of course, it helped hide the fact that the criminality was scattered all through the administration, not just concentrated in the person of the president. The Bushes just added to the evidence that the GOP is corrupt from top to bottom, and megalomaniac to boot: Bush II was a pretty complete synthesis of Nixon + Reagan, at least in this regard. You can see why Republicans want to forget all that. But it will be harder this time, because the party was so completely complicit in Bush's crimes. But the Republicans never wanted to "move on" when Clinton was president. The Paula Jones lawsuit was allowed to proceed on the grounds that no president is above the law (except, of course, for Nixon, Reagan, and the Bushes). Clinton and his administration had to endure numerous special prosecutors, mostly turning up nothing. Some, like Kenneth Starr, abused their position so flagrantly that the law was changed -- just in time to give Bush free reign. Update: I looked for a post with this chart before, but it has vanished into the backfiles. Popped up again, so I thought I'd add it here. Matthew Yglesias: Orzag on Saez: The chart shows how the top 1%, 1-5%, and 5-10% of income earners have fared over time. The top 1% is relatively volatile, with booms coming with financial bubbles, both in the Roaring 1920s and the upslope from Reagan's S&L looting through Bush's subprime mortgage bubble. Interestingly, while the lower tiers of the well off roughly tend to track the top 1% through the New Deal, their split has remained remarkably consistent ever since 1943, with a very slight uphill trend. This means they've basically become unhitched from the top 1%, which was the sole beneficiary of the Reagan-Bush era. Thursday, December 4. 2008MumbaiSteven Coll: Decoding Mumbai. This seems about right. Pakistan's longstanding grudge against India over Kashmir -- over lots of things, really, including the fact that India is an intrinsically stronger and richer country that Pakistan could have been part of in 1948 except for the machinations of the Muslim League and the selfish perversity of the British -- is the context from which these and a long line of terror attacks originate. On the other hand, India's hands aren't exactly clean in this. They have about as much right to Kashmir as the UK does to Northern Ireland, and they've handled it about as ineptly. Moreover, they've never seen any reason to settle their differences with Pakistan. Not only do they figure that when push comes to shove, it's Pakistan that will wind up in the dirt. They seem to take some pleasure in that thought, maybe because it seems to validate the choices India made that Pakistan didn't -- like building an educational system, and keeping their military forces under democratic control. On the other hand, you can't say that the whole nation of Pakistan is equally guilty. One of the peculiar features of Pakistan is that as the top levels of leadership have been forced to bow to international pressure over Pakistan-based terrorists, the chain of command has been obscured so thoroughly that nobody you can shake down seems to have anything to do with it. The interesting, and promising, thing here is that India doesn't seem to be itching for a casus belli -- unlike certain trigger-happy countries we can name, including the right-wing party ruling India back in 2002. This seems like a rare lapse of sanity, but there isn't much else anyone can realistically do about it. The best outcome would be for Zardari to effect a purge of any more/less rogue elements in the military-security complex -- something the PPP has had plenty of reason to want ever since Zia ul Haq overthrew Zardari's father-in-law. But to do that, Pakistan needs to feel less insecure, most of all from India. Which means India should put its own house in order. Established powers on both side have something to lose there, but most of the people have a lot to gain. The power imbalance between India and Pakistan is roughly similar to that between the US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War years, where keeping parity against the discretionary spending of the much richer party turns out to be bankrupting. India could afford to develop and still spend enough to cajole Pakistan; for Pakistan the same choice, tragically, was either/or, and that's dug them into the hole they're in today. It behooves everyone to help them out. Tony Karon: Mumbai Massacre May Sink Bush-Obama Strategy. Some cold water splashed on my theories. Political pressures are likely to push India toward a more aggressive posture, especially if Pakistan proves unwilling or unable to cough up the terrorist groups. The US has already been through that with Pakistan, and that's hardly been a heart-warming experience. One thing to add here is that the general purpose of terrorist tactics is to produce a reaction, especially a stupid one. The evident rationale for the Mumbai attacks is to drive a wedge between India and Pakistan: the more likely you think the two countries are to settle their differences, the more urgent the attack became. With India and Pakistan at each other's throats, the local Kashmir conflict becomes big business. It also moves Pakistani forces away from the Afghan-oriented tribal areas, which is the war the US wants Pakistan to be fighting -- not this nonsense with India, a country we see more and more as a key business partner. Needless to say, what really hurt the US wasn't the 9/11 attacks but the stupid, senseless reaction that sent us off into endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. One can argue over whether Al Qaeda benefited from that, but clearly we hurt ourselves big time. Politicians like to posture about how we can never bow to terrorism, but that's just what they did. Wednesday, November 26. 2008The Inertia of Security HeadsFrida Berrigan: Who Rules the Pentagon?. Tom Engelhardt's introduction is the most disheartening review of Obama's emerging team in the defense/security/state sectors yet. Not really a big surprise: it is, after all, impossible to have had experience in those sectors without having been complicit in the construction of the imperial edifice. Moreover, despite repeated failures it's hard to find any of them who have learned anything more basic than to pin the tail on somelike like Donald Feith. Then, of course, beyond the political hacks, there's the enduring professional military, and their equally enduring industrial suppliers. It's this inertia, with so many fingers in so many pots, that makes it impossible to do a break-before-make -- i.e., to break the war machine before making peace. That's unfortunate, given how effective the war machine is at staving off peace. But I'm afraid it's also realistic. Two things I've seen recently strike me as positive. One is that Obama says that "vision" is his department, not something he's planning on delegating to the staff. The other side of that coin is that the staff is being hired for their practical skills, useful to implement Obama's "vision." Given how sorely lacking most of those people were in the vision thing, that suggests that their pasts may not be so indicative of their futures. The second thing is that even with large stimulus spending in the works, Obama has some critical budget people sharpening their red pencils. I've seen assertions that defense spending isn't "discretionary," but in fact no spending is more discretionary -- and since it's largely escaped critical review for the last eight years, or really a good deal more, none is riper for cuts. Initially we're likely to see more arguments of the form: we need to expand X so we need to cut back Y, not just to cover the expense but to manage the whole effort better. But if/when Obama can reduce the sense that we live in a hostile world, a lot of defense crutches could crumble away. That will take a lot more "vision" than we've seen lately, but it's a far cry from utopianism to think that virtually all countries and virtually all peoples would like to take a break from the endless and fruitless wars eight years of Bush and Sharon and their kin have embroiled us in. Never before has "give peace a chance" seemed like such a simply aggreeable proposition. Tom Engelhardt: Stuff Happens. Explores one of the standing arguments for why it's impossible to get out of Iraq on any fixed timetable: there's just too much stuff in place to get it all out. That's how lame these arguments get. Even if it were impossible to move everything back you didn't want to leave behind, the US military is sure as shit skilled enough to blow it up. Maybe it would help if they disguised those excess tanks and such as civilian wedding parties? Wednesday, November 19. 2008Operation Enduring DisasterTariq Ali: Operation Enduring Disaster. I just finished reading Tariq Ali's The Duel: Pakistan on the Flight Path of American Power, which is more focused on Pakistan than on the Bush administration's hapless botch of an occupation of Afghanistan, but the two are related, especially in the sense that however bad the signals emanating from Afghanistan, Pakistan has the potential to amplify them thunderously. This piece brings the focus back here, with a title that rings so true it should henceforth be impossible to read "Operation Enduring Freedom" without correcting it. Robert Baer: When will Obama give up the Bin Laden ghost hunt? Just the latest of several piece I've seen arguing that we'd be better off just declaring Osama Bin Laden dead than continuing to fail chasing a pretty cold trail. The reasons are pretty good, starting with the fact that we have no real business tramping through Pakistan, blowing up shit left and right. But the real issue isn't whether Bin Laden is dead or alive; it's whether we pursue him through legal channels or by criminal means. Declaring him dead might be a practical way of avoiding admitting that the whole fevered revenge war did nothing but compound the original crime.
Note I started writing to Matthew Yglesias in response to a couple of posts today ( Long and Deep; A Big Difference), but got off on a tangent:
Just a draft; didn't send this in. Wednesday, November 12. 2008Teams of RivalsTom Engelhardt: No Breathing Space in Washington. Also titled: "Don't Let Barack Obama Break Your Heart." I see that Doris Kearns Goodwin is coming to Wichita to speak at the Chamber of Commerce, pushing her line that Obama needs a "team of rivals" like Lincoln had. Obama is well known for seeking out alternate points of view. He also has the reputation for being able to think for himself, so maybe his choice of advisers won't be as fateful as it has been for others -- Bush, Clinton, Bush, and Reagan come readily to mind. Still, most of what you hear these days is about how he needs to stock his team with the very same sorts who got us into this mess in the first place -- e.g., former Treasury Secretaries Lawrence Summers and Richard Rubin; current Defense Secretary Robert Gates. The instinct may just be to be cautious; after all, who wants to rock a sinking boat? On the other hand, we hear very rarely hear a name even from short left field -- Robert Reich, maybe, about as short as you can get. The other problem, which is more in Engelhardt's sights, is that Obama still accepts much of the American empire paradigm, especially as regards using military force against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He may have wanted to change the way we think about war, but it isn't clear how much he's changed his own way of thinking. This is unfortunate for lots of reasons: one being that there is a lot of opportunity to make some dramatic changes fast. Iraq is more than ready for a major drawdown of US forces. Iran and Syria have been anxiously awaiting a US government willing to deal with them. Afghanistan and Pakistan need a lot more sympathy and understanding, which doesn't come about by escalating the air war -- we need more tools, including a willingness to indulge in "nation building." And, of course, the big game changer would be to broker a fair deal in Israel/Palestine. All of those things have been blocked primarily by the Bush administration's war fetishism. Obama could change all that, but he'll have to overcome a lot of institutional inertia to do so -- much more than he was willing to tackle during the campaign. Engelhardt writes:
Mark LeVine: Obama will have to go where no other president has dared. If Obama really wants a "team of rivals" he needs to bring experts like LeVine into the fold. Good, succinct summary of the real problems Obama will face in the Middle East, far removed from the political lens of the campaign media: Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Afghanistan, Iran. Tuesday, November 11. 2008Newer DealsPaul Krugman: Franklin Delano Obama? There seems to be more discussion of the New Deal very recently than at any time I can remember in all my 58 years. Krugman may have been the one who started this off (cf. The Conscience of a Liberal, and look forward to a revised edition of The Return of Depression Economics), but others have brought up similar points, including Robert Kuttner (The Squandering of America and Obama's Challenge) and James Galbraith (The Predator State). I've also seen a few books from the right attempting to discredit the New Deal, such as Amity Shlaes' The Forgotten Man. Krugman helps clarify some of the history here, including the false starts that allow for right-wing nitpicking, and notes that the stimulus package that really did the trick was WWII -- spending at a level that no one could have previously conceived of, but which had the effect not just of raising the whole economy but of creating a long-lived middle class. Long-lived, that is, until Reagan and his followers started knocking the essential props out from under. Advice to Obama: think big, spend big. George Packer: The New Liberalism. A post-election sample of the liberal breeze, mostly about Obama but starting with six paragraphs on FDR. Packer argues that Obama is a cautious sort, but circumstances are making him bolder:
Emphasis added. More on those changing times:
The biggest problem I see with a new New Deal is no longer political; it's resource bound. FDR could argue that there's nothing to fear but fear itself because the economy could still grow as fast as you could force money into the system and get people back to work. That's less obviously true now, in large part because we're increasingly pinched by supply shortages of critical goods -- most importantly oil, but the list is growing. While there's probably room for some forced growth, at some point the economy is bound to contract. A lot of American myth is vested in the notion that equal opportunity is a fair substitute for equality because opportunity in general is boundless, but that won't be the case when we start to choke on limited supplies. (More myth is vested in the idea that science will solve all problems, but that too may just be misplaced optimism.) Actually, fairness becomes even more critical whenever the economy shrinks, whether due to financial mischief like we've witnessed of late or more intractable resource crunches. Anyone who thinks Democrats, even smart ones like Obama, will be able to solve such problems and bring back the giddy heights of "the American Century" is likely to be disappointed. What's far more critical is that they soften the landing -- that they respond to crises like people who give a damn and can think their way through tough issues. How good they are at that remains to be seen, but the Republicans have been nothing less than catastrophic. One more hint on how the New Deal may come back is a 2004 book I hope to get to soon, by Obama advisor Cass Sunstein (better known recently for co-authoring Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness): The Second Bill of Rights: FDR's Unfinished Revolution -- And Why We Need It More Than Ever. Andrew Loenard: My Father's Vote. I didn't realize until this week that Andrew Leonard is the son of the late John Leonard. Short memoir piece here, the critical time being Obama's election. I first read John Leonard in my late teens, most likely on education, something I was interested in because I got so damn little of it growing up in Wichita. I always regarded him as a pillar of civilization. Rumors, or maybe just arguments, are going around to the effect that Obama should keep Robert Gates around as Secretary of Defense. I suppose that would be like Richard Nixon keeping Clark Clifford because he didn't screw up as badly as Robert McNamara -- which, by the way, Nixon didn't do. Actually, that wasn't the first analogy that popped into my mind. First thing was that it would be like the Allies letting Albert Speer stay on to keep German industry afloat after WWII. Sunday, November 9. 2008Show of MoneyThomas L Friedman: Show Me the Money. President-elect Obama's getting lots of bad advice these days. The New York Times' star opinionist has nothing in his kit but bad advice, so it's not surprising that he'd use his soapbox to spread some around. Still, his column today is spectacularly stupid:
There's an obvious contradiction here. What makes all those people all around the world so happy is the expectation that Obama will not continue Bush's arrogant, bellicose, and disastrous foreign policy, yet Friedman assumes that he will -- in particular, that he will keep up the sporadic bombing of Pakistan, which Friedman admits is bound to cause blowback. There's no reason why any nation unwilling to back Bush should back Obama doing the same. Indeed, if Obama gets stuck in the same policies, his worldwide popularity will wane too. One thing that Obama needs to learn, if indeed he doesn't understand it yet, is that American imperialism is not in the best interests, let alone desirse, of the people who voted for him, and therefore is not a platform he can build a successful political career upon. This was a hard lesson for past Democratic presidents to learn, mostly because the propaganda against Communism had been so successful, partly because Clinton was so insecure viz. the military. Still, time and again, war has kept Democratic presidents from delivering on their promises, and as such has weakened their political position. This is even true for Roosevelt, easily the greatest of American war presidents, whose New Deal never delivered on two of his Four Freedoms because WWII got in the way. Saturday, November 8. 2008Shining LightsUncle James weighs in on the election with a letter in the Wichita Eagle today:
Thus goes the meltdown of the right-wing brain. Just think: if you could peel Obama's skin off and wrap it around McCain or Bush or Rush Limbaugh you'd get the best of all worlds. Of course, it would be easier for the Republicans to celebrate "the best of what the United States is" by nominating Alan Keyes, but somehow they didn't think of that in time. Even if they did, it's unlikely he would have been any more successful than he was running against Obama in Illinois in 2004. Then, as now, Obama won on issues, on the voters' willingness and confidence to trust him to better represent their interests and views. In particular, it shouldn't be surprising that Americans would elect someone who supports abortion rights, given that a majority of Americans do too. The thing I find peculiar is how James singles out abortion rights and basic civil rights for homosexuals as "the worst of what we are." Way back when I was a Boy Scout, I thought that rights were the very essence of what America was about. The Declaration of Independence started with a declaration of rights. More rights were enshrined in the Constitution, forming a Bill of Rights that were placed high above the political winds of Congress and the Presidency. I've never been able to see how someone could claim to be an American patriot and not support those rights, let alone try to extend rights in reasonable cases the founding fathers didn't spell out explicitly. Yet, much to the nation's shame, we have a long history of trampling on our own rights, and no one has suffered worse in that history than Afro-Americans. After several decades of Republicans exploiting social fears for votes to back their oligarchy, and eight years where the Bush administration has ignored the constitution any time it seemed convenient, it's good to see the candidate who best stands up for our rights to win. By the way, that "shining light" has always shined brighter in theory than in practice, and has dimmed in both respects lately, with two wars taking the greatest toll: the Vietnam conflict which showed the US as the last defender of colonialism and introduced such lovely locutions as "destroying the village to save it"; and the post-9/11 global tantrum, which spread far more terror than it ever sought to have controlled. One result is that our standard of living, once the envy of the world, has dimmed, torn apart by the growth of inequality, made less secure by governments controlled by special interests, by people whose commitment to the public is purely selfish. It's possible to see Obama's election as a vote for restoring and extending our rights, and for reigniting that fabled "shining light." James can't see this, hence his mental breakdown. |