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Monday, May 22, 2023

Let this be done. I'd rather go watch the basketball game -- well, practically anything -- than keep digging up more articles I have to comment on. Especially ones that suggest that Biden's is not going to do the right thing and tell the Republicans where to stuff their extortion demands.

Top story threads:

Trump: He didn't do much new this week, but he's still the cutting edge of Republican dystopia, so might as well hang onto the top slot here.

• Ed Burmila: [05-21] How Trump left Washington even swampier: "The battle for power and influence in the nation's capital is more shameless, desperate, and embarrassing than ever."

• Michael Tomasky: [05-18] Donald Trump against America: "He loves an America of his twisted imagination. He hates -- and fears -- the America that actually exists. And if he gets back to the White House . . . look out." I would have skipped over the diatribe on Trump's call for "peace without delay" in Ukraine, and I wouldn't have interpreted "reevaluating NATO's purpose" as "giving Putin a free hand in what the Russian dictator calls the 'near abroad.'" Trump had similar sentiments when he became president in 2017, but failed to do anything constructive about them, and would likely find the State/Defense/CIA blob equally inpenetrable in 2025. His real threat is elsewhere, as Tomasky goes on to demonstrate: in 2016 he sold a vision that he could "make America great again," and declared America "great" as soon as he got elected -- not that many people noticed much change. But like a bad movie sequel, this time he's out for redemption and revenge. There are people who will relish just that, but a majority? Even outside of the America he's written off, the one he's sworn to destroy, that's going to be a tall order.

• Michael Tomasky: [05-19] Did Donald Trump seriously sell pardons? The question is being raised in a complaint against Rudy Giuliani, along with much more. For that, see Prem Thakker: [05-16] Rudy Giuliani is a raging alcoholic and sexual predator, says new lawsuit.

Republicans:

• Alexandra Berzon/Rebecca Davis O'Brien: [05-20] Air DeSantis: The private jets and secret donors flying him around.

• Jamelle Bouie: [05-19] The four freedoms, according to Republicans: Unlike Roosevelt's four freedoms, these are more like licenses, which privilege one group of people at the expense of others:

  There is the freedom to control -- to restrict the bodily autonomy of women and repress the existence of anyone who does not conform to traditional gender roles.

  There is the freedom to exploit -- to allow the owners of business and capital to weaken labor and take advantage of workers as they see fit.

  There is the freedom to censor -- to suppress ideas that challenge and threaten the ideologies of the ruling class.

  And there is the freedom to menace -- to carry weapons wherever you please, to brandish them in public, to turn the right of self-defense into a right to threaten other people.

• Gillian Brockell: [05-21] Ron DeSantis's context-free history book vanished online. We got a copy. The title of the 2011 book is Dreams From Our Founding Fathers: First Principles in the Age of Obama, which "in title, cover and content, is essentially a troll of former president Barack Obama's 1995 memoir Dreams From My Father.

• Thomas B Edsall: [04-12] The Republican strategists who have carefully planned all of this. Quotes Rachel Kleinfeld: "On the right, support for violence is no longer a fringe position."

• Melissa Gira Grant: [05-19] Christian nationalism has prevailed in Texas. Trans teens will suffer.

• Ellen Ioanes: [05-20] How Republican states are eroding local democracy: "Republican leaders in Tennessee, Mississippi, and Texas are targeting Democratic communities and institutions."

• Michael Kruse: [05-19] The Casey DeSantis problem: 'His greatest asset and his greatest liability': Fairly long piece, with lots of evidence that she's the brains and grit behind her rather pathetic husband. Joan Walsh is skeptical: [05-19] The case against Casey DeSantis. Really? Or maybe she just dislikes the insinuations, having heard much the same about Hillary Clinton?

• Nicole Narea:

  • [05-18] The staggering fine print of Texas and Florida's new anti-trans bills.

  • [05-19] DeSantis's feud with Disney is costing Florida -- and possibly his 2024 campaign: Disney is scrapping a "$1 billion investment in Florida." Normally I'd respect a politician who stands up to big business interests trying to shake down state and local governments, but that's not why DeSantis has picked this fight. For a bit more, see David Kurtz: [05-19] Stop calling DeSantis v. Disney a feud! "A tinpot governor with proto-fascist tendencies is trying to bend a multinational corporation with a footprint in his state to his will, make them compliant and subservient, and cow not just other corporations but other institutional power centers, like universities." One more point should be added: DeSantis is doing these things to build up Florida as an example of what he wants to do all across America, should he get the chance. In one sense, he's brilliant, in that he can demonstrate "facts on the ground" instead of just rhetoric. On the other hand, they are nearly all malign, and people should be able to see that. This also gives his presidential campaign a sense of urgency, as he can't afford to skip this round and let people see how badly Florida is going to turn out. Good chance that by the end of his term, his approval rate is going to wind up near 10% -- where Sam Brownback wound up in Kansas after writing crackpot laws through two terms. (I'm less clear on the details, but Bobby Jindal and Chris Christie are probably two more examples of what happens with bad governors get their way.)

• Tori Otten: [05-19] Nebraska passes double-whammy bill banning abortion and trans kids' health care. For another view on Nebraska, see Lila Shapiro: [05-20] 'I want the bloody hands recorded': "Machaela Cavanaugh's tear-and-rage-filled filibuster of the anti-trans bill she knew would probably pass anyway."

• Rachel Roubein/Caroline Kitchener/Colby Itkowitz: [05-20] Republicans deploy new playbook for abortion bans, citing political backlash: "GOP lawmakers in North Carolina and Nebraska are casting new 12-week bans as 'mainstream.'" That's only because they couldn't convince enough Republicans to back even stricter bans. Their "playbook" remains take all they can get.

• Li Zhou: [05-18] Montana just banned TikTok. Will it actually work?

Economy and Debt:

• Jen Kirby: [05-19] What a debt default could mean for America's superpower status: Interview with Marcus Noland, mostly about the demand for US Treasuries and dollars abroad. One side effect could be that it becomes harder to enforce US sanctions against target nations. Given that sanctions rarely work, that doesn't strike me as much of a problem, but there are people with a lot of money at stake, and long-term this gives other nations incentive to cut the US out of their banking systems.

• Paul Krugman:

  • [05-19] Death, Napoleon and debt: Just the fundamentals. Anyone who claims that governments should pay off their debts like individual have to is profoundly stupid, or (more likely) trying to snow you. Individuals age and die, so their creditors need to get repaid before they lose out. But governments go on and on, usually with growing economy and taxes, so all they have to do is service the debt, which is easy (especially if it is denominated in currency you control).

  • [05-18] Will the US economy pull off a 'soft landing'? His definition is unemployment under 4% and inflation under 3%. Over the last few months inflation has come down a lot while unemployment has increased little, so this convergence seems plausible. However, if the Fed holds to its 2% inflation target, and insists on achieving it through high interest rates and induced recession, this would get bumpier.

  • [05-16] How Biden blew it on the debt ceiling. This was written a few days ago, when Biden and McCarthy were meeting, and signals appeared that some sort of deal was imminent. As of the moment [05-21] that prospect appears to have been quashed by the Republicans, who are greedy and/or malicious.

• Jason Linkins: [05-20] The Beltway media is spreading debt limit misinformation: "The political press bears a share of the blame for the fact we are once again on the precipice of default."

• Branko Marcetic: [05-19] The debt ceiling crisis is laying bare the lies both parties tell their voters.

• Jeff Stein: [05-14] 7 doomsday scenarios if the US crashes through the debt ceiling: stocks crash; a sudden recession; federal workers in limbo; Social Security and Medicare miss payments; US borrowing costs soar; economic problems spread worldwide; the dollar drops, along with US prestige. As one commenter puts it: "These outcomes read like a GOP Wish List. If they can make things bad enough people would welcome a strongman dictator, particularly a fascist like 45 who will blame it all on minorities, immigrants, gays, Democrats, nasty Women, etc., etc." Still, this is one problem that Trump actually could solve in a day, inasmuch as all it would take is for Republicans in Congress to pass a bill that raises the debt limit (as they did repeatedly for Trump). Stein's piece was recycled from an earlier one. He's been covering this issue with little insight into either the politics or economics. A recent piece is [05-20] GOP rejects White House compromise to limit spending as talks stall, partly because debt-conscious Republicans want even higher defense spending.

• Dean Baker: [05-21] Quick note on the debt burden and the burden of patent and copyright monopolies.

Immigration:

• Kate Aronoff: [05-15] The US created this migration crisis. Here's how to fix it. "It doesn't involve more border patrol. Instead, policymakers need to address climate change and decades of bad US foreign policy."

• Eric Levitz: [05-18] How to make mass immigration work.

• Lillian Perlmutter: [05-19] The dismal reality behind the migrant "surge" that never arrived: Everyone was worried that the end of Title 42 would result in a surge of crossings at the border, but numbers actually went down.

• Bill Scher: [05-18] Republicans want to impeach Mayorkas. How about giving him a medal? The "medal" is unnecessary hyperbole, but nowhere near as off base as the Republican harranges about "Biden's open border."

Ukraine War: Russia claims to have taken Bakhmut after a nine-month siege. Ukraine denies this, but are pushing forces to encircle city. Meanwhile, Ukraine hasn't quite gotten around to its much-ballyhooed spring offensive, but has started to test Russian lines on southern front.

• Blaise Malley: [05-19] Diplomacy Watch: African nations plan peace mission. Malley also wrote: [05-17] National security experts: War in Ukraine is an 'unmitigated disaster': "Signers say the conflict will be 'our undoing' if we don't 'dedicate ourselves to forging a diplomatic settlement that stops the killing.'" Only 14 names on the letter/ad (The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace in the World) -- the best known is probably Lawrence Wilkerson (second to Bush Secretary of State Colin Powell), or Jeffrey Sachs (who advised Russia on their disastrous hard turn to oligarchy in the 1990s); three I recognize from TomDispatch (William J Astore, Karen Kwiatowski, and Ann Wright), so I'm rather skeptical that this well-reasoned missive will make an impression on those still committed to "giving war a chance."

• Peter Baker: [05-21] Russia's latest sanctions on US officials turn to Trump enemies. This is a silly parlor game, where most of the people listed will take it as a compliment, and others not listed will feel left out. Few, if any, will feel anything else. Not many names I recognize, but Stephen Colbert will certainly be delighted.

• James Bamford: [05-05] The Nord Stream explosions: New revelations about motive, means, and opportunity: Argues that Ukraine's clandestine services had means (underwater drones capable of placing 500 kg explosive charges) and opportunity (including support from Poland) to blow up the Nord Stream pipelines.

• Robert L Borosage: [04-27] The Left should support ending violence in Ukraine: As should we all. The war will only end in some kind of negotiated settlement, and it really must end, even if you would like to see Putin and Russia defeated more decisively.

• Daniel L Davis: [05-21] F-16s won't fundamentally alter the course of Ukraine War: At least not this year, which gives more credence to Dave DeCamp: [05-18] US preparing for Ukraine War to become a frozen conflict. Meanwhile: [05-21] Russia says West providing F-16s to Ukraine a 'colossal risk'.

• William Hartung: [05-17] US foreign arms and training programs are out of control: Starts by referring to Charlie Savage/Eric Schmitt: [05-14] Rules for Pentagon use of proxy forces shed light on a shadowy war power, which reminds us that "proxy forces" have their own logic and agenda, which US Special Forces get drawn into.

World:

• Melvin Goodman: [05-19] The global importance of Sino-American relations.

• Ellen Ioanes: [05-17] Ecuador's political instability, explained.

• Yanis Varoufakis: [05-20] Greece's debts more unsustainable than ever: Interview, ahead of Greece's general election on Sunday. Also see the interview with Mariana Tsichli: [05-19] Greece's radical left is fighting to overcome Syriza's legacy.

Other stories:

Nina Burleigh: [05-16] Who is Leonard Leo's mysterious dark money king? "America needs to know who Barre Seid is, what kind of country he wants, and just how massive an impact his $1.6 billion gift can have on our political discourse."

Steve Early/Suzanne Gordon: [05-20] Corporate politicians are privatizing the VA, the crown jewel of socialized medicine: Phillip Longman wrote a book back in 2007 touting Best Care Anywhere: Why VA Health Care Is Better Than Yours. The basic reason was that not just insurance but actual care was fully socialized (directly run by the government). There were still a couple obvious problems: one is that while veterans were numerous and evenly distributed following WWII, the number of people eligible for VA care has steadily declined; the other is that care is concentrated in large centers, so for many veterans isn't easily accessible. Horror stories about access has led to various efforts for the VA to pay for profit-seeking care, which in turn jacks up costs while reducing quality. And needless to say, the privatization lobbies are all over this, and up to no good.

Connor Echols: [05-16] The War on Terror led to over 4.5 million deaths: That works out to a bit more than 1,000 revenge deaths for every American killed on 9/11. If you factor in American soldiers lost in those wars, the kill ratio drops to a bit more than 400-to-1. Occupying powers from the Romans to the Nazis made a point of threatening kill ratios of 10- or even 100-to-1 to deter rebellion -- a range that Israel has pretty consistently maintained. Of course, you can reduce the ratio further by including contractor deaths (8,000), suicides by veterans (30,000), and deaths of various allies (both local and foreign), but that hardly offers any comfort. (Some of these numbers come from Brown University's Costs of War page.)

Lee Harris: [05-17] Rahm Emmanuel's gas pipeline: "The Biden administration is promoting a new liquefied natural gas complex on the Pacific Coast, with expanded subsidies from the bipartisan infrastructure bill and Inflation Reduction Act." "West Coast" means Alaska. We counted ourselves lucky that Biden didn't give Emmanuel a post, but the only real difference is that now he's explicitly working for the oil and gas industry. Article quotes Lukas Ross: "Rahm Emmanuel did more than any single individual to sabotage Barack Obama's climate agenda at a time when there were congressional majorities."

Patrick Iber: [05-15] When Milton Friedman met Pinochet: "Chicago economists had free rein in Chile. The country is still recovering." Review of Sebastian Edwards: The Chile Project: The Story of the Chicago Boys and the Downfall of Neoliberalism.

Umair Irfan: [05-17] It's not just climate disasters. "Normal" weather is getting weirder, too.

Whizy Kim: [05-19] The billionaire's guide to self-help: "It's a phenomenon of our age that entrepreneurs are celebrities at all."

Eric Levitz: [05-19] The return of the emerging Democratic majority? The 2002 book of that name, by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira, fell flat, but new research suggests that young voters (Gen Z/Millennials) have continued to break for Democrats, and are becoming more dependable voters.

Ian Millhiser:

• [05-17] The Supreme Court hands down a temporary, but significant, victory for gun control.

• [05-18] The Supreme Court decides not to break the internet: Subhed is "Clarence Thomas did something right, for a change," but the vote was unanimous -- Thomas just wrote the short opinion. This was not just a question of free speech, but would have upended the business model of the biggest Internet companies around (Google and Twitter were the defendants).

Mark Paul: [05-16] Economists hate rent control. Here's why they're wrong. In my own experience, I've always felt landlords enjoyed a huge power advantage every time a lease was up, as well as all the rest of the time. So I've long felt that some sort of countervaling power was needed. Rent control would help, but as this article admits, that's only goes so far.

Joshua Raff: [05-20] John Durham's vacuous report: A fitting end to Bill Barr's ugly legacy: Barr appointed Durham as an independent counsel to dig into the origins of the 2016 FBI investigation of allegations that the Trump campaign was in cahoots with the Russians. After four years, Durham submitted a report, which Attorney General Merrick Garland released "unexpurgated, unredacted and without comment or commentary." As someone who never put any stock into that thing called Russiagate, and who is whatever the polar opposite of shocked is at the suggestion that the FBI might have been swayed by politics, I have no interest in the fine points here (if, indeed, there are any). But I'll add a couple more links (without elevating it to a section):

• Igor Derysh: [05-16] "A big fat nothing": Legal experts say "bogus" John Durham report proves "he's failed miserably."

• Heather Digby Parton: [05-17] Duped by Durham: Media fall for the spin on report about Trump-Russia probe.

Becca Rothfeld: [05-18] How to be a man? Josh Hawley has the (incoherent) answers. Well, he has a book called Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs, which the reviewer notes is "the latest in a long line of guides," citing others by Jack Donovan, Jordan Peterson, Robert Bly, and Harvey Mansfeld. Insights? "Men do not 'blame someone or something else,' such as 'society,' or 'the system,' but men do, apparently, blame 'Epicurean liberalism' for almost everything that ails them." And: "A man is a rugged individualist who figures things out for himself, but he also relies on how-to guides to teach him how to exist."

Dylan Scott: [05-19] Hundreds of thousands of Americans are losing Medicaid every month: "Medicaid's 'Great Unwinding' is even worse than experts expected."

Avi Selk/Herb Scribner: [05-16] Musk says George Soros 'hates humanity,' compares him to Jewish supervillain. I know nothing about Magneto, but the admission that the villain "drew inspiration from Zionist leaders Ze'ev Jabotinsky and Meir Kahane" is troubling on multiple levels. But what is clear is that Musk views his political antipathy to Soros as clearly tied to Soros's identity as a Jew. Why Musk thinks that Soros "hates humanity" and "wants to erode the very fabric of civilization" isn't specified.

Also on Musk:

• Cristiano Lima: [05-15] Elon Musk's about-face on government censorship.

Jeffrey St Clair: [05-19] Roaming Charges: Living With the Unacceptable: Starts with a classic Dwight MacDonald quote: "The Ford Foundation is a large body of money completely surrounded by people who want some." Sure, it's part of a fund appeal, but it doesn't hit you over the head.

Li Zhou: [05-17] How Democrats pulled off a big upset in Florida: Jacksonville ("the most populous Republican-led city in the country") elected Donna Deegan mayor.

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