Sunday, September 1, 2019


Weekend Roundup

The lead story for most of next week will be Hurricane Dorian, which as I write this (see here and here) is a Category 5 Hurricane moving slowly through the Bahamas toward the coast of Florida. It is expected to turn north and follow the coast (possibly without the eye making landfall) up to North Carolina, where it will most likely head back into the Atlantic. The current tracking forecast puts it off the coast of Palm Beach around 2PM Tuesday, Jacksonville 2PM Wednesday, close to the SC/NC border 2PM Thursday, and straight east of the NC/Va border 2PM Friday. Presumably the storm will lose intensity as it drifts north, but not as quickly as it would if it landed. Rain forecasts are relatively mild, but the coast will see storm surges and a lot of wind.

Dorian was still a tropical storm when it passed over the Windward Islands last Monday (55 mph winds in Barbados, 4.1 inches of rain in Martinique). It wasn't much stronger when it crossed Puerto Rico, but was predicted to intensify to Category 3 or 4 as it headed through the Bahamas to Florida. It did more than that, reaching sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts to 225 mph. The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively mild so far, even compared to the forecasts (12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major). With the season about half over, there have been 5 named storms (TS Erin was named after Dorian, but has already dissipated), 2 hurricanes, 1 major (Dorian). The season continues through the end of November, so we're not much below expectations.


Some scattered links this week: