A senior adviser to [UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer was asked how many Gazans have to die before Labour will call for a ceasefire. The reply came: "As many as it takes . . ."

Top story threads:

Israel:

• Nicole Narea: [10-19] A timelilne of Israel and Palestine's complicated history. A lot of useful information here, though there are things I'd stress a bit differently.

• Sam Adler-Bell: [10-21] War of the statements: "The unusual way Americans have processed the Israel-Hamas War."

• Zack Beauchamp: [10-20] What Israel should do now: "Israel's current approach is clearly wrong. Here's a better way to fight Hamas -- and win."

• George Beebe/Anatol Lieven: [10-19] How China and Russia can help us avoid escalation in the Middle East: This is a bit fanciful, starting with the assumption that the US wants to "avoid escalation in the Middle East." The underlying point -- that Russia and China could help in cooling down hot spots -- would make more sense if the US wasn't so intent on heating them up.

• Ghousoon Bisharat/Oren Ziv/Baker Zoubi: [10-17] Israel cracks down on internal critics of Gaza war: "Palestinians, as well as some left-wing Jews, are being suspended from studies, fired from jobs, or arested at night -- all because of social media posts."

• Data for Progress: [10-20] Voters agree the US should call for a ceasefire and de-escalation of violence in Gaza to prevent civilian deaths: 66% of all likely voters agree (more or less), including 80% of Democrats, but evidently not Joe Biden.

• Mohammed El-Kurd: [10-20] Western journalists have Palestinian blood on their hands.

• Jarod Facundo: [10-17] Progressive American Jewish groups lead cease-fire rally near White House: "The protesters urged the Biden administration to prevent 'a chain of reactions that would be catastrophic for a lot of people.'"

• Basil Farraj: [10-21] Israel steps up its war against Palestinian prisoners: "Israel has almost doubled the Palestinian prison population since October 7."

• Gershom Gorenberg: [10-20] How West Bank settlements led to the conflict in Gaza: "Having to defend them clearly imperils Israeli security."

• Chris Hedges: [10-22] Let them eat cement: "Israel is not only decimating Gaza with airstrikes but employing the oldest and cruelest weapon of war -- starvation."

• Ellen Ioanes: [10-21] Israelis feel abandoned by Netanyahu after October 7: "A recent poll shows high support for a group invasion in Gaza but dismal numbers of the prime minister."

• Colby Itkowitz: [10-11] Democratic divisions over Israel resurface after 'cease-fire' comments: "Democrats harshly rebuked several left-leaning lawmakers who have called for a 'cease-fire' as Israel-Gaza war escalates."

• Sarah Jones: [10-19] The Palestinian blood on America's hands. Quotes Biden as saying: "The Israelis are gonna do everything in their power to avoid the killing of innocent civilians." Everything? All they would have to do is stop the bombing. Are they stopping the bombing? Biden's credulity here is mind-boggling. Especially coming right after Biden saying: "Israel is going after a group of people who have engaged in barbarism that is as consequential as the Holocaust." About 1,300 Israelis have been killed in this event. That's awful, but not even a rounding error compared to the Holocaust. Worse than the Holocaust? That's not exactly going to encourage Israel "to avoid the killing of innocent civilians."

• Robert Kuttner: [10-13] Israel's dwindling moral high ground: Imagine an alternate world where Israel stopped at repairing the breach in the wall, and didn't go on to bomb Gaza and threaten genocide. A little restraint would have argued for their innocence, putting a little distance between the Hamas attack from the 75 years of Israeli attacks that preceded it, and making it much easier to negotiate a way out of this disaster. But Netanyahu just had to show Gaza (and the world) how tough and intemperate Israel could be, as if anyone needed reminding. Similarly, the world would have remained very sympathetic to the US after 9/11, instead of being forced to recognize GW Bush as the sniveling warmonger he really was.

• Eric Lipton: [10-17] Middle East war adds to surge in international arms sales.

• Branko Marcetic: [10-20] Forget 'peace,' did Abraham Accords set stage for Israel-Gaza conflict?

• John Nichols: [10-21] Blessed be the peacemakers, unless they raise their voices in Washington.

• Peter Oborne/Jamie Stern-Weiner: [10-17] Why settlers want war in the West Bank.

• Christian Paz: [10-20] What do leftist critics of Israel do now?

• Mitchell Plitnick: [10-20] Biden's Mideast policy implodes.

• Nathan J Robinson: [10-20] The current Israel-Palestine crisis was entire avoidable: Interview with Jerome Slater, author of Mythologies Without End: The US, Israel, and the Arab-Israeli Conflict 1917-2020.

• Raz Segal: [10-13] A textbook case of genocide: "Israel has been explicit about what it's carrying out in Gaza. Why isn't the world listening?"

• Omar Shakir/Yasmine Ahmed/Akshaya Kumar: [10-20] We are seeing urgent signs of more mutual mass atrocities to come in Israel and Gaza.

• Jonah Shepp: [10-22] Don't blame Gazans for Hamas: "The terrorist group has never been very popular among the people it rules." At this point, I'm not sure what Hamas really is or isn't, other than a figment of Israel's propaganda ministry. But when Israel says they're taking out Hamas, they're really just aiming to punish Palestinians, because, like they learned from the British, they've always been about collective punishment.

• Richard Silverstein:

  • [10-17] Stop the genocide, 500 die in hospital bombing, forensic analysis declares IDF responsible.

  • [10-21] Israel bombed Gaza hospital and lied about it.

  • [10-22] Israeli security think tank proposes expelling 2-million Gaza Palestinians.

• Noga Tarnopolsky: [10-21] How Biden bigfooted Bibi: "The American president has captured Israeli hearts. Can he rein in the Israeli government?" Is he even trying?

• Nahal Toosi: [10-20] 'There are options for Israel that do not involve killing thousands of civilians': "A now-former US official explains why he resigned rather than pave the way for more arms transfers to Israel as it battles Hamas." Josh Paul was the one who resigned.

• Jeff Wise: [10-19] How long can Gaza survive without water?

Trump, and other Republicans:

• Philip Bump: [10-17] Why Jim Jordan's speaker bid failed -- for now.

• David Dayen: [10-18] Ken Buck gets his revenge on Jim Jordan.

• Norman Eisen/Joshua Kolb: [10-21] MAGA lawyers take a sweetheart deal for democracy. Trump should be frightened: "Why the Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell" plea deals matter."

• Ben Jacobs: [10-20] Republicans started a civil war they don't know how to end.

• Michael Gold: [10-20] Mitt Romney's sickest burns: Book reveals harsh views of fellow Republicans.

• Kelly McClure: [10-20] "Beyond the warning stage": Trump fined for violating gag order.

• Andrew Prokop: [10-20] The GOP speaker contest has entered its "who?" era: Jim Jordan lost.

• Joyce Vance: [10-22] More bad news for Trump.

Legal matters and other crimes:

• Ian Millhiser: [10-19] The Supreme Court considers whether a very stupid gun law is also unconstitutional: "What should the Supreme Court do when gun laws are written by incompetent trolls?"

Ukraine War:

• Blaise Malley: [10-20] Diplomacy Watch: Can aid package overcome 'Ukraine fatigue'?

• Anatol Lieven: [10-19] The perilous pursuit of complete victory in Ukraine.

Other stories:

Brian Merchant: [10-20] On social media, the 'fog of war' is a feature, not a bug. "Even if that haze has occasionally been punctured for the greater good, as when it's been used for citizen journalism and dissident organizing against oppressive regimes, social media's incentive structure chiefly benefits the powerful and the unscrupulous; it rewards propagandists and opportunists, hucksters and clout-chasers."

David Pogue: [10-19] My quest to downsize without throwing anything away: "A big old house full of belongings -- could I find them all a new life?"

Vincent Schiraldi: [10-16] Probation and parole do not make us safer. It's time to rethink them. Some troubling examples and statistics. Author also has a new book: Mass Supervision: Probation, Parole, and the Illusion of Safety and Freedom.

Jeffrey St Clair: [10-20] Born under punches: Counterpunch 30th anniversary.

We went to the Global Learning Center's annual banquet on Saturday, where we were lectured by Bob Flax, past executive director of Citizens for Global Solutions, on the need for effective world government. I was pretty much aligned with their thinking 25 years ago, when I started thinking about some kind of major political book. I circulated a draft of about 50 pages to some friends, and every time I mentioned anything in that direction, I got savage comments from one reader. The gist of her comments was: no fucking way anything like that's going to fly. I had to admit she was right, which killed that book idea -- though after 2001 events suggested more urgent political book tasks.

Clearly, the idea of a benign global authority which can lawfully arbitrate disputes between nations has considerable appeal. Flax started his presentation by pointing out how the superior government of the US Constitution resolved disputes and standardized practices, at least compared to the previous Articles of Confederation. On the other, every government presents an opportunity for hostile takeover by special interests -- or for that matter, for its own bureaucratic interests. There are, of course, reasonable designs that could limit such downsides, but they will be resisted, and it doesn't take much to kill a process that requires consensus.

Consequently, I've found my thinking heading toward opposite lines. Instead of dreaming of an unattainable world order, why not embrace the fact that nations exist in a state of anarchy? It's been quite some time since I looked into the literature, but I recall that a fair amount of thought has been put into functioning of anarchist communities. The key point is that since no individual can exercise any real power over anyone else, the only way things get done -- at least beyond what one can do individually -- is through cooperative consensus-building.

The smartest political book to appear in the last 20-30 years is Jonathan Schell's The Unconquerable World -- maybe smarter than Schell realized, as he doesn't spend nearly enough time on the insight of his title. Yet, at least since 2000, efforts to conquer and occupy other parts of the world have nearly all been doomed to failure: the US in Afghanistan and Iraq (and Somalia and Libya and Syria); Saudi Arabia in Yemen; Russia in Ukraine; Israel in Gaza. None of these were what you'd call underdogs, yet they ultimately couldn't overcome the resistance of the people they meant to subdue. (China may prove an exception in Sinkiang, where they have huge advantages, but probably not in Taiwan, where they don't.)

Unable to conquer, the only recourse is to deal with the other nation as an equal, to show respect and to search out areas that may be mutually beneficial. American reliance on power projection and deterrence seems to be habitually baked in, which is strange, given that it has almost never worked. On the other hand, what has worked -- at least for US business elites (benefits for American workers are less plentiful) -- has been generous bilateral and multilateral engagement with "allies."

Of course, I didn't bring this up in the long Q&A period that followed. A who guy spends all his life working on a nice dream shouldn't have it trampled on just because I'm a skeptic, but also I doubt I could have expressed such a profound difference of opinion in a forum that was predisposed to the speaker. But had I spoken up, most likely I would have held myself to a smaller, tangential question: is anyone in his circles seriously talking about a right to exile? Sure, they are big on the ICC, which they see as necessary to enforce international laws against war crimes and human rights abuses. The ICC rarely works, as it depends on being able to get their hands on suspects. (I think it would work better as a reference court, where it could validate facts and charges, in absentia if necessary, but not punish individuals.)

A "right to exile" offers people convicted in one country the chance to go into exile elsewhere, if some other country decides the charges are political in nature or simply unjust. This is both a benefit to the individual freed and to the country, which no longer has to deal with a troublesome person. This is also likely to reduce the level of international hostility that is tied to the perception of people being treated unfairly. And it should reduce the incentive that countries have for prosecuting their own citizens. It could also reduce the need to determine whether immigrants need to be protected as refugees.

I've never seen anyone argue for such a right, but it seems to me that it would make the world a slightly better place. (When I looked up "right to exile," most references concern whether a state has a right to exile (or banish) its citizens -- something that is widely frowned upon. I could see combining both meanings, provided there is a willing recipient country, and the person is agreeable to the transfer.

I have a few dozen off-the-cuff ideas worth pitching, some simple and practical, others more utopian (for now, anyway). Paul Goodman wrote a book called Utopian Essays & Practical Proposals. That strikes me as a super subtitle, to say the least. His 1949 proposal for a car-free Manhattan still strikes me as a pretty good one.

Music Week

Expanded blog post, October archive (in progress).

Tweet: Music Week: 20 albums, 3 A-list

Music: Current count 41003 [40983] rated (+20), 27 [26] unrated (+1).

I worked up a monster Speaking of Which this week (9497 words, 125 links). It was a maddening process, as I kept tripping into rabbit holes and digging in even further, before punting, and repeating. A big part of the problem is that years of repetition has locked people into language and conceptual ruts that were designed to perpetuate conflict, to dehumanize opponents, and to justify abuse of power. I found myself having to define "war" -- as opposed to other degrees and durations of directed violence. I found myself trying to write some kind of disquisition on morality. I got stuck in questions of sequence and causality. And I could always reach back into an encyclopedia of historic facts to illustrate any point I wanted to make. But all the articles I was collecting were just spinning around, some damn near nonsensically.

Still, one point was instantly clear to me from the first reports: Israelis -- not all, but probably most, or at least most of the ones who have any actual political power -- want to empty the entire land of Israel/Palestine of Palestinians, and there are few if any limits to what they're willing to do to accomplish that goal. In other words, they are aiming for genocide, and they are looking for excuses to do it; perhaps I should say, for opportunities to get away with it?

This isn't a new sentiment. It was baked into Zionism from the beginning, but only surfaced as something one could say in 1936, when the Peel Commission proposed partition and forced "transfer" -- the first of many such euphemisms. The plan was put into practice in 1948, as the Deir Yassin massacre was staged to terrorize Palestinians into fleeing -- as more than 700,000 did during Israel's War of Independence. But in the 1967 war, Israel's plans for further mass expulsions had to be toned down to keep from offending the US and its allies (only about 200,000, of a growing population, fled). But as Israel's government has lurched ever more to the right, and as the US has become ever more subservient to Israel's right, the talk and action, especially led by the settlers, has only picked up, reaching a crescendo in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack.

The only way to stop this genocide is to make Israel ashamed for even thinking such thoughts. Railing against Hamas won't help. If anything, it only emboldens Israel.

While I was working on this, I found it very hard to prospect for new music, and even harder to write about it. I got off on an odd r&b sax tangent early in the week. I was lucky to come up with three good new saxophone albums (Nachoff fell just shy of the mark with an excess of strings).

But what really made this week so difficult was the death of Donald Barnes (81), known to all of us as Tookie. He came into our lives when he married my dear cousin Jan in 1960. They grew up in Kinsley, KS, and married right out of high school. His father was a welder, and he learned that trade very young. They followed his father to a shop in Wyoming for a couple years, before coming back to Kansas. He got a job at Cessna, and they lived in Wichita for about a year when I was in 9th grade. Their love and friendship was about all that got me through that year. They adopted a daughter that year, Heidi, and I've never seen anyone as happy as he was when he signed the papers. Not long after that, they had a son, Patrick.

But Jan hated the big city, so they left, first to Hugoton in western Kansas, where he built feedlots, and then to Idaho to work on a pipeline. They wound up settling in Soda Springs, where he worked at Monsanto's phosphate plant, becoming an electrician as well as a welder. There was nothing mechanical he couldn't master. Someone once complimented me as the "most competent person" she had ever met. For me, that person was Tookie.

Jan refused to go to college, and wound up working low-paid jobs which she was totally overmatched for. But they loved the outdoors, camping, and hunting. Tookie was an artist, hunting elk with bow and arrow, tying his own flies, crafting antique guns (including a blunderbuss). But the moose head that dominates their living room was Jan's doing. He was quiet and fastidious, with a sly and mischievous sense of humor. She was a force of nature, energizing all around her. She was (well, is) one of the most formidable cooks in the family, continuing to make industrial quantities of bread and rolls for her local farmers market each week. They've always struck me as one of the world's most perfectly suited couples.

I could dredge up dozens, maybe hundreds, of stories, missing only a stretch in the middle of our lives when distance kept us apart. First time Laura and I took a trip together, we went to Yellowstone, then to Soda Springs to see Jan and Tookie. Heidi had been to college, but was there and proclaimed us "perfect for each other," which pretty much sealed the deal. We won't talk about politics here, except to note that no matter we might have disagreed on those things, it never got in the way of our love for each other.

New records reviewed this week:

• Tyler Childers: Rustin' in the Rain (2023, Hickman Holler/RCA): [sp]: B+(***)
• Caroline Davis' Alula: Captivity (2021 [2023], Ropeadope): [cd]: A-
• Quinsin Nachoff: Stars and Constellations (2022 [2023], Adyhâropa): [cd]: B+(***)
• Angelika Niescier/Tomeka Reid/Savannah Harris: Beyond Dragons (2023, Intakt): [sp]: A-
• Bailey Zimmerman: Religiously: The Album (2023, Warner Nashville/Elektra): [sp]: B+(**)

Recent reissues, compilations, and vault discoveries:

None.

Old music:

• Little Willie Jackson & the Original Honeydrippers: Jazz Me Blues [The Legendary Modern Recordings] (1947-48 [2000], Ace): [r]: A-
• Willis Jackson: The Remaining Willis Jackson 1951-1959 (1951-59 [2005], Blue Moon): [r]: B+(*)
• Willis Jackson/Pat Martino: Willis . . . With Pat (1964 [1998], 32 Jazz): [sp]: B+(**)
• Willis Jackson/Richard "Groove" Holmes: Live on Stage (1980 [2003], Black & Blue): [sp]: B+(***)
• Wild Bill Moore: The Complete Recordings Volume 1: 1945-1948 (1945-48 [2004], Blue Moon): [r]: B+(**)
• Wild Bill Moore: The Complete Recordings Volume 2: 1948-1955 (1948-55 [2004], Blue Moon): [r]: B+(***)
• Wild Bill Moore: Bottom Groove (1961 [2002], Milestone): [r]: B+(**)
• Sam Price and the Rock Band: Rib Joint: Roots of Rock and Roll (1956-59 [1979], Savoy): [sp]: B+(***)
• The Roots of Rock'n Roll (1948-57 [1977], Savoy): [r] [yt]: B+
• Zoot Sims: For Lady Day (1978 [1991], Pablo): [sp]: B+(**)
• Zoot Sims: The Swinger (1979-80 [1981], Pablo): [sp]: B+(**)

Unpacking: Found in the mail last week:

• Atlantic Road Trip: One (Calligram) [11-03]
• Dave Bayles Trio: Live at the Uptowner (Calligram) [11-03]
• Mike DiRubbo: Inner Light (Truth Revolution) [11-17]
• Scott Hesse Trio: Intention (Calligram) [11-03]
• Steve Million: Perfectly Spaced (Calligram) [11-03]
• Russ Spiegel: Caribbean Blue (Ruzztone Music) [10-23]
• Kevin Sun: The Depths of Memory (Endectomorph Music) [10-27]

Daily Log

In response to yesterday's post, I received an email titled "tom hull, bibi supporter," with a screenshot image of this quote:

"Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas," he [Netanyahu] told a meeting of his Likud party's Knesset members in March 2019. "This is part of our strategy -- to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank."

I got this because I wrote a paragraph suggesting that the best solution at this point would be for Israel to cut Gaza loose, as a free country (ok, with some restrictions, but free of Israeli control and terror). Many, perhaps most, Palestinians don't like this idea, presumably because they still want a single Palestinian state (either in the whole of Palestine, or in something version of the "two-state solution"). The idea that Netanyahu shares this idea is ridiculous, as is the charge that I'm a "bibi supporter." Netanyahu, like all Israelis in any position of power, has never seriously entertained the idea of freeing Gaza. The Israelis refuse to admit the possibility of any kind of Palestinian state, even in a territory (Gaza) that they have no interest in occupying. Their position is one of pure spite.

I've never described myself as "pro-Palestinian" or "pro-Israeli." I'm "pro-peace," and I understand that to require some minimal level of justice and equal rights. But I'm also realistic enough to know that the only peace that is possible is one Israel is willing to grant. It should be possible to persuade Israel to cut Gaza loose: it costs them very little, except for giving up a measure of control that frankly they have neither the skill nor fortitude to exercise. East Jerusalem and the West Bank is another story. They've made it clear that they're going to finish annexing those lands. What happens to the people is an open question, for which most Israelis have very harsh preferences. But if you subtract Gaza -- and the rest of the Palestinian refugees, which I see as a dead issue -- the case for integrating the remaining Palestinians as equal Israeli citizens becomes more palatable, and infinitely preferable to the prevailing trend, which is heading toward genocide.

Still not very good odds at present, but last week and this should impress on any remaining sane and decent minds the need to do something before it's too late.

Speaking of Which

Blog link.

Note: I ran out of time Sunday evening, so I posted what I had, hoping to fill it out with my usual sources and clean it up and repost Monday. I've added a few things (none new articles -- the Kaplan and Silverstein sections are largest, and a couple links to MEE), but my eyes are glazing over, and I need to take a break and move on to other things. So I've done very little rewriting, and no reorganizing. Sorry about that. Consider this final for the week. I believe that there are enough ideas and words here for a coherent essay, but despair of getting them structured right.

I started writing an introduction on Friday night, and spent all of Saturday laboring over it, only to find it impossible to say everything I wanted to say in the limited time I had. What I wrote wasn't worthless, so when I hacked it out, I moved it to the end of this post. It is, however, incomplete, and not as convincingly fleshed out as I would like. I did manage to write up a fantasy sketch on how what they're calling the "Israel-Hamas War" might come to a soft landing, given a considerable (and unexpected) change of heart in Jerusalem and Washington (and probably Cairo).

That's followed by one paragraph on why that's unlikely, which I might have followed up with three or four more on the genocidal psychology Israelis have cultivated for over a century. (It predates the Holocaust, which itself was the ultimate example of nationalist, colonial, and imperialist plots against whole peoples. I could give you a long list, probably starting with the extermination of the Arawak in Hispaniola, but one vivid example from American memory if the Trail of Tears. By the way, the deeply cultivated memory of the Holocaust in Israel probably acts more to inhibit its repeat than to inspire it, which is one reason why it's so difficult to write up analogies between Nazis and Israelis -- not because they boggle the imagination but because they're often so easy: you won't find a closer historical antecedent to the eruption from Gaza that started this episode than the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising.)

My wife also recommended this piece, dated [2018-08-14], so old as news goes, but had the movement it covers been more successful, we might be having less news this week: Nathan Thrall: BDS: How a controversial non-violent movement has transformed the Israeli-Palestinian debate. I've said a lot of negative things lately about sanctions, especially as a much-overused tool of American foreign policy, but in all things you need to consider the circumstances and the alternatives. One key case where a BDS campaign was successful in affecting much-needed change was South Africa. As with Israel, the established Apartheid regime was so entrenched and so powerful it was hard to imagine them getting overthrown, and impossible to think that a foreign power might persuade them. Yet economic pressure, along with an appeal to conscience, finally did the trick.

Perhaps the single best book I've read on Israel is Richard Ben Cramer's How Israel Lost: The Four Questions (2004). He starts with an old Jewish parable which I'd have to look up to get right, but it basically says never give in to pressure now when you can put it off until later. Israeli leaders (even Netanyahu) have always been smart and flexible. They've repeatedly conceded points, but almost never have they followed up on those concessions. They begged for the UN partition resolution in 1947, then ignored its borders. They agreed to cease fires, only to reload and resume the attack. They signed armistices in 1949-50, promising to turn them into peace treaties, but never did. When Eisenhower insisted they halt the 1956 war, they did, but dragged their feet for six months on the necessary withdrawal. They agreed to UN resolutions after the 1967 and 1973 wars, then made a mockery of them, annexing Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. They invaded Lebanon in 1978, and when Carter insisted that they withdraw, they did . . . until they invaded again in 1982, which Reagan let them get away with. The signed the Oslo Accords, then dragged their feet, taking advantage of a loophole allowing "natural growth" of settlements. Even Netanyahu signed the Wye River Accord, then did nothing to implement it. The list goes on and on and on, but they got away with it, because in the end no one (well, other than Eisenhower) held them to their word. Give them an inch, they'll take a couple feet, then pretend you didn't understand, and talk about what great allies we are. That all fits the parable in the book.

The other point of the book is that Jewish Israel is actually divided into several distinct camps that basically don't like each other. But the conflict, having a common enemy, holds them together, so much so that they fear dissolution and despair if they should ever lose that common bond. And that conflict, not just the local one with Palestinians but the global, existential one between Jew and Gentile, is baked into every nook and cranny of their culture, their very being, the space they inhabit. The Holocaust Museum has halls full of nightmares, but you exit onto a hilltop overlooking Jerusalem, and that's Israel's deliverance, or at least that's the lesson. Cramer's book is 20 years old now, so he's not totally up to date. He hadn't yet seen how tightly wound that psyche would become, how viciously it would explode. Max Blumenthal's 2013 book, Goliath: Life and Loathing in Greater Israel, was one of the first to really expose that, though books on the settler movement offered glimpse of that earlier (e.g., Idith Zertal and Akiva Eldar: Lords of the Land: The War for Israel's Settlements in the Occupied Territories, from 2007).

Back around 2005, someone wrote to me and asked whether I thought Israel would commit genocide. I don't have the letter any more, but my answer was basically no. While there were forces, from deep within the racist, colonialist soul of Zionism, that could drive them in that direction, there were also other forces that would inhibit them, and save them from going off the deep end. I'm still not sure they will go through with it, but they're talking the talk, and walking the walk. And the time has come to talk them off the ledge.

Top story threads:

Israel/Gaza: I just grabbed a lot of articles below. I'm less interested in detailing the atrocities than I am with the broader thinking about the war and its future consequences. There's way too much here to fully digest, but I think the outlines and imperatives are clear. The outline: that despite the initial shock, the only story now is Israel's (and the world's) response. The imperative: to talk Israel down from committing genocide. As usual, there is a lot of good reporting at Middle East Eye, MondoWeiss, +972 Magazine, Tikkun Olam.

[PS: As I was trying to wrap this up, there is this report: Egypt-Gaza crossing set to open for aid, says Blinken; 24 hours' more fuel at Gaza hospitals, says UN.}

• Vox: [10-13] 7 big questions about the Israel-Hamas war, answered: I could quibble on various points, but this is a reasonable starting point, especially if you don't have a lot of specialist knowledge. The questions:

  1. Where does the conflict currently stand?
  2. What do I need to understand about Gaza and Israel's relationship to understand today?
  3. But why did Hamas launch such a huge attack now?
  4. How did this become an outright war, worse than we've seen in decades?
  5. What will declared war mean?
  6. How is the US responding?
  7. What does this mean for the region -- and the world?

• Yuval Abraham: [10-13] Settlers take advantage of Gaza war to launch West Bank pogroms.

• Jonathan Alter: [10-11] Will Netanyahu survive the fallout? He didn't deserve to survive the last twenty years, or for that matter his brief term as Prime Minister back in the 1990s, so clearly his brand of oily but intransigent malevolence appeals to many Israelis. Whether they can also stomach the incompetence is an open question. I'm not surprised that Scher has no real insight into this. His turf is as a centrist Democrat, which leads to one of the stupidest lines I've read this week: "The war gives [Biden] a chance to address the nation about the need to protect both Ukraine and Israel from aggression -- to lump Vladimir Putin in with Hamas by explaining that both of them hate freedom and kill children." The wars are similar only in the sense that the US is backing the side that wants the land but not the people, who don't want our side (dare I say it, that want to be free of our side?). But Ukraine, at least, is fighting a well-armed foreign adversary, and they genuinely need our help. Israel doesn't need our help, except to restrain them from doing unimaginably horrible things. Sending them more arms won't do that.

• Bernard Avishai: [10-15] l Can White House diplomacy prevent escalation in Gaza and beyond? They're not off to a good start. It's hard to impart wisdom when you got your head stuck up Netanyahu's ass . . . especially if you didn't have any wisdom in the first place. But at some point, Israel is going to become an embarrassment, even for someone as shameless as Biden.

• Ramzy Baroud:

  • [10-11] The Gaza war is lost: But will Netanyahu concede?

  • [10-13] A day to remember: How 'Al-Quds Flood' altered the relationship between Palestine and Israel forever.

• Zack Beauchamp: [10-11] How to think morally about the Israel-Hamas war: I hate to say this, but this feels like a guide to becoming pompous and irrelevant. Sure, it's easy to sit far removed from the fracas and condemn this or that, and there may be some intellectual satisfaction in that exercise. But that's a luxury, not just because you're safe, but because you get to judge a hypothetical rendition of events, filtered through the language and cognitive constructs you are comfortable with. Consider this:

  We can and should extend sympathy to Israeli victims, but we should not let that shade into justification for retaliatory atrocities. We should condemn Hamas terrorism, but we should also condemn Israeli abuses against Gazans.

  Why the qualifier "Israeli victims" but no qualifier for "retaliatory atrocities"? It's unclear whether he means "victims who are Israeli" or "victims of Israelis." And why distinguish "retaliatory" from any other kind of atrocities? Then note the word choices in the last line: why is it "Hamas terrorism" but "Israeli abuses"? "Abuse" is far from the most precise description of dropping bombs from F-15s. But "terrorism" -- which Beauchamp uses repeatedly -- bothers me more, as it's been used for decades now as code for evil souls who can only be stopped with killing. The only thing Israelis (and Americans) hear after "Hamas terrorism" is "we support you in killing them." So if that's not our intent, we should find better ways of talking about this.

• Peter Beinart: [10-14] There is a Jewish hope for Palestinian liberation. It must survive.

• Marin Cogan: [10-13] There's no Jewish American consensus about the conflict in Israel and Gaza: "Attitudes toward Israel were already changing. The unfolding violence is making it even more complicated."

• Roy Cohen: [10-15] Families of Israelis abducted to Gaza decry government's 'abandonment'.

• Jonathan Cook: [10-08] The West's hypocrisy towards Gaza breakout is stomach-turning: Written early, but revised three days ago.

• Ryan Costello: [10-12] 'Freezing' Iran's humanitarian fund is self defeating: Not sure whether Biden did this due to Israeli orders or simple panic over Republican talking points, but neither is a good look -- especially as all it proves is that America is an unreliable diplomatic negotiator, likely to double cross you at the first opportunity.

• Jamil Dakwar: [10-13] Neither Palestinians nor Israelis will be safe unless all are safe.

• Badia Dwaik: [10-15] Israel is besieging the West Bank as it decimates Gaza: "While the world's eyes are on Israel's genocidal war in Gaza, Israel has also put the entire West Bank on lockdown. We are living under siege."

• Elizabeth Dwoskin: [10-14] A flood of misinformation shapes views of Israel-Gaza conflict: "The barrage of false images, memes, videos and posts -- mostly generated from within the region itself -- is making it difficult to assess what is real."

• Stefanie Fox: [10-13] Jewish grief must not be used as a weapon of war: "we cannot sit back while Israel uses our trauma as a reason to destroy Gaza."

• Masha Gessen: [10-13] The tangled grief of Israel's anti-occupation activists. As one put it: "We've warned for a long time. But, when it actually happens, it's the most devastating thing." In my experience, we actually pull our punches, out of an overabundance of caution, or simply the dread that if our worst imagined scenarios came true, our thinking of them may have contributed, or more likely simply be blamed. I'm reminded of Nicholson Baker's Human Smoke: while the pacifists were brushed aside (or in many cases incarcerated) once the US entered WWII, during the 1930s they were often the only ones who anticipated the horrors to come, and who tried to raise the alert.

• Omar Ghraieb: [10-12] As darkness descends on Gaza, I yearn for the world to see us, too.

• Rebecca Maria Goldschmidt: [10-13] This is genocide: All out to end the war on Gaza.

• Neve Gordon: [10-13] Can Netanyahu survive Hamas's attack on Israel? Unlike Jonathan Alter (above), someone who actually knows something about Israeli politics.

• Nicholas Grossman: [10-11] Trump's overrated peace plan helped enable the horrors in Israel and Gaza: Well, it was Kushner's plan, and the real goal was to get billions of Arab dollars for his investment fund, among other grafts. But Trump's concessions to Israel certainly added to their hubris.

• Jonathan Guyer: [10-14] How the Arab world sees the Israel-Palestine conflict: "Demonstrations of solidarity with Palestinians have broken out across the Arab world this week." This will only increase as the extreme cruelty of Israel's siege continues, and the failure of America and Europe to restrain Israel becomes more obvious. Guyer refers back to his article: [02-06] The US's empty commitment to a two-state solution.

• Tareq S Hajjaj: [10-15] This could be my last report from Gaza: "Keep my stories alive, so that you keep me alive."

• Benjamin Hart: [10-13] What Israel didn't understand about Hamas: Interview with Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer, an associate of Benny Gantz. I don't have any real insight into Hamas, but I don't buy this take, let alone the blanket demonization that goes with the drive to exterminate everyone associated with them. Early on Hamas was basically a charitable community organization, and later they transformed into a political party to challenge Fatah. Like Fatah, they spun off an armed wing, a rival to Islamic Jihad, and possibly others, but they seemed to have always had a function in civil society. Israel has always done much to control the public perception of Palestinian groups. Early on Israel seemed to boost Hamas as a lever against the PLO. During the second intifada, there was a period when every time Hamas would attack, Israel retaliated by shelling Arafat's headquarters -- hard to paint that as deterrence against Hamas. While I don't doubt that Hamas-affiliated groups led this attack, the idea of calling this the Israel-Hamas War seems to involve some sleight of hand. Especially as Israel has no ability and probably no incentive to distinguish between Hamas and any other Palestinians. The real war here is between Israel and the people of Gaza, and by "war" I mean massacre. Hamas is mostly just a brand that Israel uses for people they want to kill.

• Hanine Hassan: [10-12] Israel-Palestine war: Mass slaughter in Gaza lays bare the depth of western racism.

• Maha Hilal: [10-15] Israel's war isn't against Hamas -- it's on the Palestinian people.

• Ellen Ioanes:

  [10-15] Gaza's spiraling humanitarian crisis, explained: "Israel's evacuation order is creating chaos in Gaza. A ground invasion will be worse." Consider this: "Though Israeli military policy is to use disproportionate force in Gaza as a deterrent strategy, that has so far failed to enact durable security, limit Hamas's ability to strike Israel, or allow space in Israeli politics for any sort of political negotiation that could lead to a more peaceful future."

  • [10-14] How does Iran fit into the war between Israel and Hamas?

• Donald Johnson: [10-15] How would the 'NY Times' know if Israel valued human life? They say it over and over again, "but a reexamination of Times coverage of Israel's 2018 massacre of peaceful protesters in Gaza shows that the Times itself does not uphold such values."

• Fred Kaplan:

  • [10-10] The U.S. and Israel are walking a tightrope, and the stakes are high.

  • [10-11] Netanyahu is sharing power with one of his most popular political opponents. It could keep a broader war at bay.

  • [10-16] What is Israel's strategy now? I can't really navigate my brain through these labrythine articles, but the way I read the situation is that in public Netanyahu wants to come off as maximally hard (which is to say genocidal) and Biden wants to come off as totally loyal (which is, well, stupid). On the other hand, they both have underlings (at least now that Benny Glantz is in Israel's coalition) who share their basic worldviews but understand that implementing them isn't so simple, and carries some serious risks. That opens up a lot of hypothetical angles that are really just speculation until they aren't. For instance, "If Qatar can get Hamas to release all the hostages today, it is possible that Israel would agree to call off the invasion." Really? That would be sensible, but would be a major shift in strategy, for all concerned. There are lots of details here if you're into that sort of thing. But no answers.

• Rashid Khalidi: [10-15] The U.S. should think twice about Israel's plans for Gaza.

• Eric Levitz:

  • [10-11] A left that refuses to condemn mass murder is doomed: This came early enough in the cycle that he's focusing on anyone on the left who failed to immediately join the pro-Israeli chorus in condemning the first (and really only) wave of Hamas attacks, lecturing us that "it is therefore imperative for progressives to disavow all apologia for Hamas's atrocities and for the broader public to understand that the left's analysis of the conflict's origins, and its prescriptions for its resolution, are wholly extricable from the blood lust of a loud minority of pseudo-radicals." This is one of several articles noted here (like Beauchamp above, and Wright below) to harp on proper etiquette in responding to outbreaks of violence. He offers several examples that fell short of his standards, then inflates them to "it is not hyperbole to say that many left-wing supporters of Palestine celebrated Hamas's atrocities." Many? How sure are you that "supporters of Palestine" are left-wingers? Personally, I'm enough of a pacifist that I don't have a problem with condemning all acts of violence, but most people have more complex feelings about violence. For instance, we routinely applaud when somebody smites down the bad guy in a movie. (As Todd Snider put it, "in America we like our bad guys dead!") And what difference does me or you condemning someone make anyway? Sure, when people like Netanyahu, Biden, or whoever runs whatever faction of Hamas can make their condemnations felt, as can the soldiers who follow them, but you and me? We're mostly just expressing our moral sense, a luxury we enjoy because we aren't connected to the people we presume to judge. And, let's face it, we're doing it hastily on the basis of very little, and probably very faulty, information. I mean, I get where Levitz is coming from, because as a leftist, my politics reflects, and is an expression of, my moral sense, and I want them to be consistent and universal. But I also find it hard to condemn someone for trying to break out of jail and stand up to a power that had for all his life punished him and everyone he grew up with, even if that person wound up harming someone else. Sure, that's not something I would do, but I'm not in Gaza, and I've never had to live that life. I truly don't know what I'd do in his shoes. But what I am certain of is that in standing up to Israel, he was bound to die, and that, regardless of whether he killed or not, his defiance would be taken by Israelis as justification to punish more people in Gaza, more severely than ever before. As a leftist, I could go on and condemn Israel for their retaliation, as I had condemned them for their past transgressions (not that it did or will do any good). However, I can see one argument for not condemning the Palestinian kid who breaks out of jail and goes on a rampage: I'm not adding my voice to the clamor urging Israel to multiply his violence many times over.

    I could have phrased this many different ways. I could have brought up examples, like a slave revolt, or a kidnapping, where one would have been less likely to instinctively blame a person for fighting back. I don't, for instance, blame Ukrainians for fighting back against Russian invasion. It's human nature to resist attack and oppression. (And if you think this case is one where Hamas is invading Israel, you need to reconsider your facts.) But sure, if you want reassurance that I'm not in favor of Hamas any or all Israelis, I will give you that, but I'll try to phrase it in a way that doesn't support Israel's many crimes.

    One last point here: this article basically does the leg work, complete with quotes usable out of context, for someone else's anti-left tirade. Levitz may not be wrong in what he says, but he's giving us a lecture most of us don't need, and he's giving ammunition to our enemies, in many cases the same people who are clamoring for genocide against Gaza.

  • [10-13] The US is giving Israel permission for war crimes.

  • [10-13] No, America's declining power didn't cause Hamas's attacks. Evidently, some pundits who think America should throw its weight around more (huh?) have come up with this line -- names dropped her include David Leonhardt, Noah Smith, and Ross Douthat.

• Gideon Levy:

  [10-09] Israel can't imprison two million Gazans without paying a cruel price.

  • [10-14] The world cannot stand by and watch this slaughter.

• Nicole Narea: [10-13] How the US became Israel's closest ally: Whole books have been written on this, dating back to Kathleen Christison's Perceptions of Palestine: Their Influence on US Middle East Policy (1999), with John B Judis: Genesis: Truman, American Jews, and the Origins of the Arab/Israeli Conflict (2014) focusing on Israel's creation. But while American sympathies with Israel grew mostly through Democratic presidents from Truman through Clinton, they shifted when GW Bush's neocons explicitly aligned with the Israeli right to destroy the Oslo framework and use Israel as a free agent in striking out at supposed enemies like Iran. Obama struggled to return to a Clinton-level of fawning embrace, but by then the "facts on the ground" and the hardening of Israel's right had made that impossible, so he ultimately gave up. (Josh Ruebner's Shattered Hopes: Obama's Failure to Broker Israeli-Palestinian Peace covers this, as does Trita Parsi's A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy With Iran.) Trump, on the other hand, sided whole hog with Israel, and Biden has made no effort to reverse Trump's surrender (unlike in Europe and the Far East, where his reassertion of American leadership has already produced one war and made another more likely). While the bond has been real and deep, this has never struck me as a true alliance. Israel does what they want, and America helps clean up the mess. As Moshe Dayan put it: "America gives us arms, money, and advice. We accept the arms. We accept the money. We ignore the advice."

• John Nichols: [10-14] Israelis are rejecting Netanyahu. So why is Biden giving him a blank check?

• AW Ohlheiser: [10-12] Don't believe everything you see and hear about Israel and Palestine: "Misinformation about the Israel-Hamas war is easy to find online. Here's how to avoid spreading it." Fairly generic reminder about how social media is regularly used to spread propaganda and other mischief. The problem it doesn't go into is how readily mainstream media falls for carefully tailored propaganda lines.

• Kenn Orphan: [10-13] Israel and the Gaza prison break.

• Eve Ottenberg: [10-13] Euphemisms for war are deadly: "How we talk about war matters." Refers to David Vine's Words About War guide. Actually, I think these could use some more work. No doubt we should avoid "terrorists" -- it's not just a loaded word, by now it's become a conditioned reflex to kill -- but I'm not sure "militants" is a better alternative. That word is almost exclusively used these days as a synonym for "dead Palestinian male." I also want to note that while "ethnic cleansing" has come to the process of driving a group out of a land (as, for instance, is now happening in Nagorno-Karabakh, or happened in the 1830s with the Trail of Tears), the phrase was originally just a euphemism for mass killing (specifically, what the Serbs did at Srebrenica in 1995), a cutesy way of saying genocide.

• George Packer: Israel must not react stupidly: I didn't read this, due to the paywall, but I did manage a laugh. I counsel people against saying "never forget," but I guess I haven't. I then took a look at some of Atlantic's other links, reminding myself why I don't pay them money (besides that I'm cheap, I mean), and found: Conor Friedersdorf: "Students for Pogroms in Israel"; Helen Lewis: "The Progressives Who Flunked the Hamas Test"; and Bruce Hoffman: "Understanding Hamas's Genocidal ideology." They're all on board, though one article could go either way: Hussein Ibish: Israel is walking into a trap: "Storming into Gaza will fulfill Hamas's wish." The author is a resident scholar at an Arab think tank in Washington, and every reference to Hamas in what I can see links them to "their Iranian backers." The trap I see is that Israel will lose what little's left of their souls. He probably seems martyrdom of Hamas as feeding into Iran's bid for leadership of the Muslim world. I doubt that's even a fantasy in Tehran -- although the Saudis are still reeling from a nod in that direction back in 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini was in the first throes of revolution, so it could well be on Ibish's agenda.

• Trita Parsi: [10-15] Biden refuses to talk 'ceasefire' though it could prevent a regional war: "It's strategic malpractice for the White House to give Israel carte blanche when he knows it could drag the US into a wider conflict." This isn't my big worry right now. Although Israel has shelled Lebanon and bombed Syria in recent days, their demonization of Iran has always been more about manipulating Washington than confronting a serious enemy. The real risk, short-term, is genocide in Gaza, and as that is unveiled -- and there's little chance that this one won't be televised -- the bad feelings that will be generated could come back to attack Israel and its allies (and the US is much more exposed than Israel is) in all sorts of unpredictable ways. And as long as the US and Israel remain committed to policies of massive reprisals, the real damage kicked off by provocations will mostly be self-inflicted. Why haven't they learned this much by now?

• Matthew Petti: [10-13] Why does Egypt fear evacuating Gaza?: As noted here, Azerbaijan recently solved its Armenian enclave problem by setting up a "humanitarian corridor," driving residents of Nagorno-Karabakh to escape to safety in Armenia. Israelis -- and it sounds like the US is going along with this -- have called for something like that to depopulate Gaza through Egypt, which doesn't like the idea, and has so far Moved to prevent exodus of Palestinians from besieged Gaza. An influx of two million Palestinians would cause significant stress to Egypt's fragile not-really-democracy, especially given that many would align with the banned Islamic Brotherhood, and many understand that Egypt's cozy collaboration with Israel and the US has kept Gaza isolated and precarious. As Israel's plan seems to be to kill everyone in Gaza who can't get out, exile doesn't sound like the worst possible outcome. On the other hand, if Israel gets away with the depopulation of Gaza, they're sure to try the same thing in the West Bank. One can even argue that with the government supporting settler pogroms, they've already started. The Nazis had a term for this: Judenrein. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an analogous Hebrew term, translating to "Arab-free."

• Mitchell Plitnick: [10-08] Hamas offensive the result of Washington's hostility to Palestinian rights.

• Vijay Prashad: [10-13] The savagery of the war against the Palestinian people.

• Meron Rapoport: [10-11] The end of the Netanyahu doctrine: "Did his plan to preserve Hamas in Gaza as a tool for keeping the strip separate from the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority weak finally backfire?"

• Nathan J Robinson: [10-14] You can't selectively pay attention to certain atrocities and ignore all others: "How is it possible to be outraged by Hamas killings of Israeli children, but ignore or rationalize the killing of Gazan children?"

• Kenneth Roth: [10-11] The attack on Israel has been called a '9/11 moment'. Therein lies a cautionary tale.

• David Rothkopf: [10-15] The war's just started, but Benjamin Netanyahu has already lost: "No matter what happens following Israel's siege of Gaza, the Israeli prime minister's political ambitions are likely damaged beyond repair."

• Richard Silverstein:

  • [10-09] Israel's Hannibal Directive: Israeli attack will likely result in 120 hostage deaths. Silverstein reported on the Hannibal Directive back in 2014: "a policy calling for the killing of Israeli soldiers who fall captive to Palestinian militants."

  • [10-10] Biden sends naval task force to warn Hezbollah, Iran against intervention.

  • [10-10] Israel planted Wall Street Journal leak claiming Iran ordered Gaza attack.

  • [10-12] Gaza: Chickens come home to roost: "Terror, hate and violence of Gaza war make their way to America's shores."

  • [10-13] Israel plans to ethnically cleanse Gaza: "IDF gives 1.5 million Gazans 24 hours to leave their homes, one of the greatest acts of ethnic cleansing since Bosnian War."

  • [10-15] Israeli security source confirms IAF massacred civilians in refugee convoy despite army denials, 70 dead.

• David Sirota:

  • [10-12] The fog of war in Israel and Palestine: "As the long-running quagmire erupts into more bloodshed and destruction, we need to stop dehumanizing the conflict and acknowledge both sides' pain and suffering." Benny Morris captured this sentiment in his title, Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist-Arab Conflict, 1881-1999. However, beyond suffering, we also need to check who has the power and agency to actively reduce the pain and harm.

  • [10-14] The war on Gaza is the result of decades of extreme Israeli policy: Interview with Matt Duss and Daniel Bessner.

• Norman Solomon: [10-11] 'Israel's 9/11' is a slogan to rationalize open-ended killing of Palestinian civilians. It's also a phrase meant to appeal to Americans, and solicit their support for indiscriminate slaughter.

• Jeffrey St Clair: [10-13] Roaming Charges: Gaza without mercy: "You won't have to interrogate them afterward. They are explicit about the war crimes they're planning to commit." Sample quotes (read it all):

  When you declare total war against Gaza, which has been under perpetual siege since 1967 after being seized by Israel during the Six Day War, what is it you're going to war against? There are no airbases, no army bases, no tank battalions, no air defense systems, no naval ports, no oil refineries, no rail system, no troop barracks, no armored personnel carriers, no howitzers, no satellite systems, no attack helicopters, no fighter jets, no anti-tank batteries, no submarines, no command-and-control centers. Just people, most of them women and kids. It's why the entire population must be dehumanized, turned into "human animals" whose lives don't matter.

  The reaction in the US to Hamas's attacks was more hysterical, the calls for ultra-violence more grotesque, and the lack of dissent more uniform, than in Israel itself (which is saying something because Netanyahu blustered this week that "Every member of Hamas is a dead man").

  Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is considered one of the most reasonable of the current crop of Republicans. "Finish them." Genocide is now her campaign theme.

  Lindsey Graham has reverted back to John "Bomb-Bomb-Bomb Iran" mode: "We are in a religious war, and I am with Israel . . . Level the place."

  The obvious parallel to Gaza is the Tet Offensive, which was a defeat for the Vietnamese, but it was the defeat that won the war, exposing the vincibility of the US military machine. It also triggered something deep in the psyche of the American occupiers, who responded with attacks of pointless savagery. The massacres and gang rapes at My Lai were a direct response to Tet. Netanyahu has vowed that Israel's response will be equally sadistic, which is, of course, a sign of its own weakness -- moral and military -- and a harbinger of its ruin.

  The column eventually moves on to his usual wide range of issues, plus some books and music at the end.

• Bret Stephens: [10-15] Hamas bears the blame for every death in this war: I've mostly picked sensible, judicious opinion pieces, because they're the ones that deserve reading and distribution. But this one, obviously, is included just to show you how horrifically wrong an American pundit can be. The clear implication is that Israel's political leaders have no free will, no brains, no morals, no capacity for managing their own behavior. Sure, to some extent, that does seem to be the case, but to what extent won't be determined until Israel stops running up Hamas's tab. And here I was, foolishly thinking that not just people but nations should be responsible for whatever they do. [PS: Well, I also gotta admit some of this is pretty funny. E.g., the paragraph that begins with "But Hamas spends fortunes building a war machine whose only purpose is to strike Israel." Or: "Hamas launched an attack with a wantonness like what the Nazis showed at Babyn Yar." Nazi Germany attacked Russia with 134 divisions, about three million men, but at least Hamas matched their "wantonness"?]

• Matt Stieb: [10-13] The violence is spreading outside Gaza: The West Bank, obviously, where Ben-Gvir is distributing another 10,000 rifles to settlers, and the border with Lebanon, as Israeli rhetoric threatens to morph into open season on Palestinians, some of whom could be inspired to fight back. Not included here is another piece of spillover violence: Hannah Allam: [10-16] U.S.-born Palestinian boy stabbed to death in hate crime: six-year-old Wadea Alfayoumi, in Illinois.

• Noga Tarnopolsky:

  • [10-12] Netanyahu is losing the war at home: "Incompetence against Hamas and indifference to Israeli suffering has the public boiling over."

  • /Shira Rubin: [10-09] Israel massed troops in the West Bank. Then Hamas attacked from Gaza. They had to protect the settlers, encouraging them to harass Palestinians. The goal is clearly to push them off the land, into ghettofied cities, and ultimately dump them over the border. Gaza was less of a problem, because it was already a ghetto, with nothing left to pilfer.

• Kelley Beaucar Vlahos: [10-10] In blistering remarks, Biden commits aid, intel, and military assets to Israel.

• Kelley Beaucar Vlahos/Blaise Malley: [10-12] Presidential hopefuls outdo each other on Hamas, Israel war: "Candidates across the spectrum urge overwhelming force and blast Biden's weakness." Republican candidates, that is, although Biden's own statement came off as the strongest, because he didn't detract from his message by talking nonsense about anyone else, even Iran. The article credits Vivek Ramaswamy with "restraint," because he stopped short of committing the US to war against Iran. Marianne Williamson waffled a bit, while assuring us she hated Hamas. Cornel West had a more coherent critique of US/Israel, but he too took pains to condemn Hamas, giving you an idea of how deep the party line has sunk in. RFK Jr strayed from his fellow Republicans in applauding Biden's statement, but more verbosely. I don't mind if he describes the Hamas attack as "ignominious" and "barbaric," but "unprovoked"?

• Gidi Weitz: Netanyahu bolstered Hamas in order to thwart the creation of a Palestinian state.

• Robert Wright: [10-13] Israel, Hamas, and Biden's failed foreign policy: After linking to this piece, I started to write the original intro (now at the end of the post), so I lost the thread here. I will say that the idea that Hamas attacked to keep Saudi Arabia from joining the Abraham cartel is a lot like saying an estranged friend killed himself to spoil your birthday party. Sure, he spoiled your day, but how could you think that's really the point? The real reasons are probably as simple as: Hamas has been trying to figure how to make enough of an explosion to remind the world that Palestinians are suffering but can still hit back and make Israelis feel some of the pain they've long subjected to; and the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War attack would heighten the element of surprise. The 1973 war was rebuffed easily enough, but the shock caused Israelis to doubt their security forces, and ultimately to negotiate peace with Egypt. But I doubt Hamas was so optimistic: they know better than anyone how determined Israel is to grind Palestine into oblivion. Second point, I really object to Wright's "assume that Hamas isn't motivated by actual concern for the Palestinian people." People who deliberately start doomed revolts may be misguided or foolish, but the idea of laying down your life to free your people goes way back, including every revolutionary we still honor, even as martyrs. I don't doubt that many Palestinians don't appreciate Hamas's efforts -- indeed, that they actively curse them -- but you need to understand their sacrifice, else you understand nothing.

• Here are a couple statements from concerned groups:

  • Boycott From Within: [10-13] Israel is annihilating Palestinian civilians in the Gaza ghetto.

  • Code Pink: [10-09] Peace comes with justice, not war.

  • Jewish Voice for Peace: [10-09] The root of violence is oppression.

  • Jewish Currents [Arielle Angel]: [10-12] "We cannot cross until we carry each other".

Trump, and other Republicans:

• Mariana Alfaro: [10-15] Trump-backed candidate wins Louisiana governor's race: Jeff Landry, no runoff necessary.

• Lindsay M Chervinsky: [10-13] Trump and the Republican war on the civil service: Trump's plan to scuttle the civil service, return to the "spoils system," and politicize every government job is easily on the top-ten list of reasons he should never hold elected office. (It's mind-boggling to contemplate listing the other nine, but this is a big one.)

• David A Graham: Trump's only real worldview is pettiness. This was triggered by some offhand comments about Netanyahu. For more, see:

  • Bill Scher: [10-12] Why is Trump trashing Netanyahu?

  • Margaret Hartmann: [10-12] Trump manages to make Israel attack all about him.

  • Fred Kaplan: [10-12] The more you think about this Trump speech, the worse it gets: That's the title on the link. When you get to the page, the title changes to "Trump somehow manages to make the Isreal-Hamas conflict all about him." Of course, Trump is, was, and always has been unfit to be president, but his tendency to go unscripted and blurt out things that no sober politician would ever admit is one of his few charms. While most of those things are incredibly stupid, or simply inane, every now and then he has a moment when he exposes the emperor's new clothes. My favorite was when he had the gall to make fun of Obama ending every speech with "God bless America." I suspect his irreverence for political pieties is a big part of his popular appeal. He has nothing insightful to say about Israel, Hamas, and/or Hezbullah, but that he isn't parroting the party line is, well, refreshing isn't the right word, but good for a laugh.

• Stephen Prager: [10-11] How the media turns extremists into "moderates": Case example, Nikki Haley.

• Andrew Prokop: [10-11] Republicans have nominated Steve Scalise for speaker. Now comes the hard part. Scalise defeated Jim Jordan 113-99, but as few as four Jordan supporters can keep him from being elected Speaker. PS: [10-12] Steve Scalise quits speaker race after humiliating 24 hours. Then: [10-13] Now it's Jim Jordan's turn to struggle to become speaker. More updates on the House:

  • Ben Jacobs:

    • [10-11] How Congress stumbled on the worst combination of representative government: Something I don't fully understand about how "the US House is acting like a parliament."

    • [10-13] The House Republicans are in a hell of their own making.

• Peter Wade: [10-15] Lindsay Graham: Trump praising Hezbollah was a 'huge mistake': Oh no, he's lost Lindsay again. What's the over-under on when they kiss and make up?

Biden and/or the Democrats:

• Ryan Cooper: [10-10] Why the full employment created by Bidenomics should be celebrated: "The economy has many problems. But the labor market hasn't been doing this well in many decades."

• Robert Kuttner: [10-11] Biden's latest initiatives against junk fees.

• Eric Levitz: [10-10] A wall won't keep Biden's border problem at bay: "Democrats face a political challenge with no legislatively viable solution."

• Dylan Scott: [10-13] Nearly 2 million kids have been kicked off Medicaid this year: "Medicaid unwinding's terrible toll, explained in 4 charts."

• Steve M: [10-15] Biden's competence is not as self-evident as he and his team think it is.

Legal matters and other crimes:

• Ian Millhiser: [10-11] The Supreme Court appears determined to make it easy to draw gerrymanders.

• Andrew Prokop: [10-12] New Bob Menendez indictment charges him with acting as a foreign agent for Egypt.

Climate and environment:

• Scott Dance: [10-13] A sudden spike in global warmth is so extreme, it's mysterious.

• Kasha Patel: [10-12] Forty percent of Antarctica's ice shelves are shrinking, worrying scientists.

• Timothy Puko: [10-09] Rich countries promised poor nations billions for climate change. They aren't paying.

Economic matters:

• Jessica Church: [10-09] The smart corporate tax idea that might have prevented the UAW strike: "targeting out-of-control CEO pay by using the tax code."

• Paul Krugman: [10-12] An economic Nobel for showing how much women matter: This year's winner is Claudia Goldin.

• Chris McGreal: [10-07] Angus Deaton on inequality: "The war on poverty has become a war on the poor": Interview.

• Maureen Tkacik/Claire Kelloway: [10-11] The no spin-off zone: "The Kroger-Albertsons merger shows us why regulators need to permanently divest the concept of, well, divesting."

Ukraine War:

• Blaise Malley: [10-13] Diplomacy Watch: Surprise, Putin and Zelensky don't agree on Gaza war. Zelensky is absolutely supporting Israel, but his analogies between Hamas and Russia are pretty tortuous, and before long he's going to fret about Israel jumping ahead of him in the arms pipeline. Putin, on the other hand, has resorted to saying things like: "I think that many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East." Ok, nobody's going to agree with him, but the rest of the line is hard to argue against.

• Connor Echols: [10-10] GOP hawks slam Biden, say he has 'no strategy' for Ukraine: In particular, they want to make sure that no one in the administration is talking to Russia.

Other stories:

Kyle Chayka: [10-09] Why the internet isn't fun anymore: "The social-media Web as we knew it, a place where we consumed the posts of our fellow-humans and posted in return, appears to be over." News to me, not that I'm unaware of the decline of fun.

Jim Geraghty: [10-12] Why RFK Jr.'s independent bid makes sense, even if he doesn't: Having gotten no traction running in the Democratic primary, with most of his support coming from Republicans just looking to muddy the waters, this move keeps him in the game, but it also changes the game. The real curse of the third-party candidate is that you have to spend so much time defending against charges of being some kind of spoiler you never get to talk about your platform, or why the two parties accorded a chance are wrong.

• Philip Bump: [10-11] Sean Hannity's predictable heel turn on RFK Jr. What happens when Hannity's favorite Democrat

Oshan Jarow: [10-13] Basic income is less radical than you think.

Sara Morrison: [10-11] We're in a new Gilded Age. What did we learn from the last one? Interview with Tom Wheeler, whose forthcoming book is Techlash: Who Makes the Rules in the Digital Gilded Age?

David Owen: [08-14] What happens to all the stuff we return?

Greg Sargent: [10-12] The GOP's 'southern strategy' mastermind just died. Here's his legacy. Kevin Phillips, dead at 82, wrote a book in 1969 called The Emerging Republican Majority, landing him a job in the Nixon White House. His painstaking research on voting trends not only validated the "southern strategy" -- Barry Goldwater and Strom Thurmond worked that hard in 1964 -- but showed Democrats losing their commanding position among Catholics and other ethnic groups (e.g., Spiro Agnew) in the north, especially as they moved to the suburbs or the "sun belt." In the late 1960s, I did roughly the same work, plotting election results from World Almanacs on county maps, so when I read Phillips book, I recognized many of the same patterns -- the main difference being that I had near-zero sense of ethnic identity, but also I was less pleased with his conclusions, and therefore more resistant. Sargent collected comments from several figures, none striking me as quite correct.

For example, Michael Barone points out that Eisenhower has already won 49-50 percent of the popular vote in the South, then claims that southern whites "turned away from national Democrats not so much because of civil rights but because of [McGovern's] dovishness." But Eisenhower's southern support was all in the peripheral states, where Republicans at least had a party structure. The deep south (South Carolina-to-Louisiana) flipped for Goldwater because the local Democrats did, as they did for Wallace in 1968). But by 1972, when Nixon swept the region, he was ducking his association with war, but dog-whistling race like crazy.

The Nixon strategy was more sophisticated than just playing up civil rights backlash. It was deeply rooted in his psyche as an all-American petit bourgeois everyman -- Gary Wills' Nixon Agonistes is probably still the most exacting psychological profile -- but he was smart, cunning, and ruthless. Phillips' job was to feed him data, but it's use was pure Nixon. (Pat Buchanan, who worked closely with Phillips, helped convert that data into the sort of bile Nixon could spew.) Nixon's use of Phillips is a big part of the reason Republicans are so artful at gerrymandering and other dark arts.

Not mentioned here are Phillips' other books. He started moving away from the Republican monster he had helped create, perhaps as early as 1982's Post-Conservative America, certainly by 1993's Boiling Point: Democrats, Republicans, and the Decline of Middle Class Prosperity. I didn't start paying much attention until his scathing 2004 book on the Bush family: American Dynasty: Aristocracy, Fortune, and the Politics of Deceit in the House of Bush. He followed that up with American Theocracy: The Peril and Politics of Radical Religion, Oil, and Borrowed Money in the 21st Century, which argued that financialization begot disaster in three world-empires (Netherlands, Britain, and most assuredly America next). That was 2006, so he was well prepared for 2008's Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism.

In a piece I cite below, Robert Wright starts by noting, in italics for emphasis:

This piece rests on my belief that the following two ideas are logically compatible: (1) Hamas is morally and legally responsible for the atrocities it committed against Israeli civilians; and (2) The US is responsible for policy mistakes that, over the years, have made violent attacks by Palestinian groups, including this attack, more likely. I've noticed, in the context of the Ukraine War, that some people find this approach to allocating responsibility not just wrong but outrageous and offensive. So I'm adding this preface as a kind of trigger warning.

The first point is the sort of boilerplate lawyers write, in this case to anticipate the moral judgments insisted on in Zack Beauchamp's essay (also cited below), so the author can move on to something more interesting than virtue signaling. I went ahead and quoted the rest of the note because he points out that critics of twenty-some years of American foreign policy toward Russia had to first condemn Putin's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine before we -- I did this, as did Wright, and even Noam Chomsky -- before we could get around to the background that one must understand in order to make any sense out of what Putin did (and again, we all had to reiterate that Putin was still in the wrong). Still, every time we did that, we helped validate the people who provoked as well as fought back against Russian aggression, freely ignoring any concerns or fears we had, or doubts about their motives.

I could go on about Ukraine -- I have in the past, and no doubt will again in the future -- but the point I want to make is: I'm not sure that we need to repeat this exercise here. Sure, if you could isolate select events in the initial Hamas attack, like the mass shooting at the concert, or the abduction of hostages, they were things we were shocked and appalled by. But the Hamas attack came up far short of a war. When Russia launched a war into Ukraine, they came with thousands of heavily armed troops, tanks, artillery, missiles, aircraft, a navy, backed by massive industry safely beyond reach of retaliation, one that could sustain operations for years with little fear of crippling losses.

What Hamas did was more like a jail break followed by a brief crime spree. They shot their wad all at once: a few thousand of their primitive rockets; 2,500 or so fighters infiltrated a few miles of Israeli territory, killing over 1,000 Israelis and taking 200+ captive. But that's basically it, and all it could ever be. Israel regrouped, killed or drove back all the fighters, patched the breaches in its defense. Hamas appears to have had no external coordination or support, and has no capability to inflict further significant damage on Israel. The attack was very dramatic, but never had a chance of being anything but a suicide mission. The only thing the attack could accomplish was to embarrass Israeli politicians, who had assured Israelis that their "iron wall" defense and the threat of massive, indiscriminate retaliation would keep them safe and render the Palestinians powerless. Unless, of course, Israelis responded in a way that exposed themselves as cruel and murderous. Which it was almost certain to do.

Even now, it isn't hard to think of a plausible path forward. Israel reseals its border, but ceases fire, contingent on no further fire from Gaza. (Similar cease fires have been negotiated many times before.) Israel allows humanitarian relief supplies to enter Gaza, under its inspection, and eventually via Egypt, as well as neutral observers and facilitators. They negotiate the release of hostages, with both sides committed to no more hostilities. Some number of refugees will be allowed out, to countries that agree to take them, with assurance that they will be allowed back in when requested. A non-partisan civil administration is constituted, in liaison with the UN, with a world-funded reconstruction budget. An indemnity fund will be set up and at least partly funded by Israel. Reparations will be drawn from this fund for any later cross-border damage by any source. Gun control will be implemented, and the region effectively disarmed. Egypt, with UN supervision, will assume internal security responsibility. Israel will renounce its claims to Gaza, which may remain independent or join Egypt. Other issues may be negotiated (e.g., water, air control).

Of course, this won't happen. Israel will insist on taking its revenge, and will kill a truly scandalous number of Gazans, further turning the area into a wasteland. Israel will probably get the hostages killed, and insist on taking further revenge for that. In short order, more people will die of starvation and disease than they can kill directly. Basically, they will kill and destroy until they tire and/or think better of it, then look to stampede whoever's left out the gate to Egypt, or let the American Navy organize a flotilla elsewhere -- like the service the British provided in 1948 moving Jaffa to Beirut. People will think up new euphemisms for this, but the root term is genocide.

I also wrote this fragment, which got moved around and is now stranded:

Before we move on to Israel's response to the attack, we should ask ourselves why frequent critics of Israel, like Beauchamp and Wright, feel a need to condemn Hamas before they can point out that Israel has done some bad things too. For most on the left, that seems fair and consistent: we oppose inequity but also violence, and imagine a possible a path toward much greater equality that doesn't involve violence. That may make sense in a stable society with laws and a responsible system of justice, which is our default understanding of America (even though reality often disappoints).

But what if no paths are available? Does it even make sense to make moral judgments over people who have no viable options to achieve morally-justified ends? If you are at all familiar with the history and politics of Israel/Palestine, I shouldn't have to run through the many reasons why people in Gaza, especially Hamas, are denied such options. Nor why hopes for change have been utterly dashed by the trajectory of increasingly right-wing governments and international indifference, especially how the US has given up any pretense of being anything but an Israeli tool. Palestinians have tried nonviolence (appealing to international law) and have tried violence. Neither worked. As each fails, the other advances.

Daily Log

Clifford Ocheltree posted this:

So. My nephew calls and asks for 20 jazz recordings from the 60s and 70s. Or, in his words, "albums normal people might like". My list (rough chronological order):

Davis, Miles: Sketches Of Spain
Coleman, Ornette: Free Jazz
Evans, Bill: Sunday At The Village Vanguard
Mingus, Charles: The Black Saint & The Sinner Lady
Dolphy, Eric: Out To Lunch
Getz / Gilberto: Getz / Gilberto
Ayler, Albert: Spiritual Unity
Coltrane, John: A Love Supreme
Hancock, Herbie: Maiden Voyage
Davis, Miles: In A Silent Way
Davis, Miles: Bitches Brew
Soft Machine, The: Third
Mahavishnu Orchestra: The Inner Mounting Flame
Corea, Chick: Return To Forever
Davis, Miles: On The Corner
Hancock, Herbie: Head Hunters
Mahavishnu Orchestra, The: Birds Of Fire
Jarrett, Keith: The Koln Concert
Weather Report: Heavy Weather
Carter, Betty: The Audience With Betty Carter

I belatedly commented:

1960s list is impeccable, although I'd try to include Horace Silver (Jody Grind) and Duke Ellington (Far East Suite was my morning music today, after Al Green's Greatest Hits). 1970s list is a different fork from the one that I would have taken, but by far the more popular one. Aside from Soft Machine, which wouldn't have occurred to me (I only really know the Wyatt side, which I love), the only ones I rather dislike are the last two. I would have shifted Coleman to one of his late 1970s masterpieces (Dancing in Your Head, In All Languages, Of Human Feelings -- there is a good case to be made for each), and for a vocal album, that's gotta be Roswell Rudd's "Flexible Flyer" (with Sheila Jordan). As for Rollins, his greatest work was before and after this period, but "Alfie" (1966) wouldn't be amiss.

Greg Morton repllied: "And of course, the best answer is "Just ask Tom." Clifford was more defensive:

Tom, in defense of my 70s selections. 1.) My nephew is 30ish and a guitar player. 2.) In that moment I was completely immersed in the group. Probably saw them more than 30 times in five years. The Carter album is one that has been part of my life since release. I only heard "Flexible Flyer" for the first time about five years ago. Need to go back and listen again.

I responded:

Long ago, my sister played me a Weather Report side that she loved. I thought about it, then played "Filles de Kilimanjaro," which I thought had everything WR was doing but much, much better. She didn't agree at all. Lots of critics I respect rate them highly, but for me they've always been just blah (even though I could imagine editing a nice compilation, especially if I could shorten some songs). Still, not just Shorter but Zawinul, the bassists (Vitous and Pastorius), and for that matter Erskine have notable work on their own. (Put him in an acoustic piano trio, and Erskine is a really good drummer.) So I figure that's largely on me, and probably the timing -- when I think of '70s fusion, I jump straight from Miles to Ornette, and between those peaks there's not much that stands out (and what does is most likely way off the beaten path, like the Tribe, or some Finnish group I'd have to look up). Double that on Carter, whose album has a Penguin Guide crown. She's an incredible singer, but one I rarely enjoy, and for that matter she's extraordinary band leader, as the instrumental stretches in your album make clear.

I was thinking about adding that for long I regarded "Flexible Flyer" as my all-time favorite jazz album, but I might ultimately give "Mingus Ah Um" the nod (with due apologies to "The Far East Suite" and "A Love Supreme").

Laura asked whether I had a copy of her poem, which she wrote and read for Wichita Peace Center poetry slam event on September 21, 2010. I thought I did, but only found a link as posted by Mondoweiss. For good measure, I'll include it here:

What do you do/if you are a Jew

by Laura Tillem

What do you do
if you are a Jew
who doesn't believe in a Jewish state
A Christian state, nor a Muslim state,
not even a Buddhist or Hindu state.
Zionism says what you must support
is a nationalist scheme of the colonial sort

What do you do
if you are a Jew
who thinks about the Palestinians.
In the West Bank and Gaza they are occupied
In Israel proper -- second class citizens.

What do you do if you are Jew
who thinks Zionism is a trap
set by those who should be taking the rap
Europe and the US refused Jews a haven
and used them then in a craven manner
against the Arab liberation banner
What do you do if you are Jew
who is proud of our history,
Tragic yes, but glorious too.
Before the Holocaust only a few liked Zionism.
We were a lot more interested in socialism.
What did Hitler hate about the Jews?
I will tell you, I hope this is not news:
We were people that could see clearly
that prejudice and exclusion cost a society dearly.
So now we have Israel, which we are supposed to love,
but it meant giving the Palestinians a terrible shove

The US pays three billion a year
To keep up a policy that costs us dear.
Some say aid to Egypt is just as big,
but listen to me and then dig:
that is our bribe to keep them on the side
Of our client Israel and its politicide.

What do you do
if you are a Jew
whose ancestors came from Poland and Russia?
When you say Israel is my homeland
I want to shush ya.

I'm 65
born in 45
This is the only time I can make that rhyme.
I graduated college in 67
I don't believe in God and I don't believe in heaven
But I used to be proud
of my Jewish background
Not much of a Jew you might say
But I just buried my Dad in the Jewish way

If you speak out loud you're called a self-hater
I think I'm just a good cogitator.
I was taught to tell the truth
So I am speaking to the youth
Mine's a story you never hear
But I am not the only one.
John Lennon was a hero of mine
and I think you can guess which tune I mean
Let's imagine no countries
and wash our bloody histories clean.

What do you do
if you are a Jew
whose sympathies lie with Palestinians
and those Israeli humanitarians
They are marching now
So tell me how
it makes sense to beat them,
jail them and send them into exile
It does no good to keep up the denial

This policy was born in the colonial mind
And now we are caught in a logical bind.
If we want to be fair
Then the answer is share
Two peoples -- one fate
I hope it's not too late.

Music Week

Expanded blog post, October archive (in progress).

Tweet: Music Week: 22 albums, 1 A-list

Music: Current count 40983 [40961] rated (+22), 26 [31] unrated (-5).

I expected this week's report to be delayed, and even so short. My plan was to entertain company, and do some fairly serious cooking. My niece came for a visit, but I came down with something undiagnosed and was a terrible host (though I did finally manage to knock out a decent phat thai). But rather than wait another day or two, I found a few minutes to knock this out before bed Monday, and figured it would be best to put it behind me.

Speaking of Which posted Sunday afternoon. I haven't followed the news since then, but I do have one important thing to say:

Anyone who condemns Hamas for the violence without also condemning Israel for its violence, and indeed for the violence and injustice it has inflicted on Palestinians for many decades now, is not only an enemy of peace and social justice, but under the circumstances is promoting genocide.

Anyone who has been paying attention must recognize by now how the Israeli people have been primed to commit massive and indiscriminate slaughter. And they must also understand that Israel, unlike Hamas, has the military power to do so. When Americans swear they continue to stand wholeheartedly with Israel, and don't show any concern for the great likelihood that Israel will commit atrocities, they are assuring Israeli leaders that anything they do will be excused. By the way, the one thing sending American naval ships into the Eastern Mediterranean reminds me of is how they stood by idly while Sharon orchestrated the Sabra and Shatila massacre of Palestinian refugees in Beirut.

As someone who believes in peace, and who has always condemned violence and prejudice on all sides, I am bothered that Hamas has chosen to respond to this cruel occupation in such a manner. But I am also aware that nothing else any group of Palestinians have attempted to secure fundamental human rights that we take for granted in America has made any headway with Israel.

For now, I'll leave it at that, aside from reproducing a tweet I managed Sunday evening:

On 9/11 I remember Netanyahu & Peres on TV, all smiles, lecturing us on how now we know it feels like to be targets of terrorism, and offering us their sage advice on how to fight and control terrorists. Not so jovial today, as all they thought they knew has blown up.

Nothing much to add to the reviews below, except that the new ones that came closest (Armand Hammer, Sarah Mary Chadwick) got multiple plays without quite convincing me. And while I showed a slight preference for one of the Yazoo comps, I would have gone with the higher grade for a 2-CD package.

New records reviewed this week:

• Armand Hammer: We Buy Diabetic Test Strips (2023, Fat Possum): [sp]: B+(***)
• Bowmanville: Bowmanville (2023, StonEagleMusic): [cd]: B+(**)
• Geof Bradfield/Richard D Johnson/John Tate/Samuel Jewell: Our Heroes (2023, Afar Music): [cd]: B+(***)
• Sarah Mary Chadwick: Messages to God (2023, Kill Rock Stars): [sp]: B+(***)
• DJ Sabrina the Teenage DJ: Destiny (2023, Spells on the Telly): [bc]: B+(*)
• Arina Fujiwara: Neon (2023, self-released): [cd]: B+(*)
• Andrew Krasilnikov: Bloody Belly Comb Jelly (2023, Rainy Days): [cd]: B
• Jeff Lederer With Mary LaRose: Schoenberg on the Beach (2023, Little (i) Music): [cd]: B+(*)
• Jeff Lederer/Morningside Tone Collective: Balls of Simplicity: Jeff Lederer Notated Works 1979-2021 (2023, Little (i) Music): [sp]: B+(**)
• Ivan Lins: My Heart Speaks (2023, Resonance): [cd]: B+(**)
• Madre Vaca: Knights of the Round Table (2022 [2023], Madre Vaca): [cd]: B+(*) [11-21]
• Astghik Martirosyan: Distance (2021 [2023], Astghik Music): [cd]: B+(*) [10-06]
• Colette Michaan: Earth Rebirth (2022 [2023], Creatrix Music): [cd]: B+(*) [10-15]
• Michael Musillami Trio: Block Party (2021 [2022], Playscape): [sp]: B+(**)
• Elsa Nilsson's Band of Pulses: Pulses (2023, Ears & Eyes): [cd]: B+(***)
• Oneohtrix Point Never: Again (2023, Warp): [sp]: B
• Gonzalo Rubalcaba: Borrowed Flowers (2023, Top Stop Music): [cd]: B+(**)
• Sara Serpa & André Matos: Night Birds (2022 [2023], Robalo Music): [cd]: B
• Gianluigi Trovesi: Stravaganze Consonanti (2014 [2023], ECM): [sp]: B+(*)
• Ben Winkelman: Heartbeat (2023, OA2): [cd]: B

Recent reissues, compilations, and vault discoveries:

• Holy Church of the Ecstatic Soul: A Higher Power: Gospel, Funk & Soul at the Crossroads 1971-83 (1971-83 [2023], Soul Jazz): [sp]: B+(*)

Old music:

• The Rose Grew Round the Briar: Early American Rural Love Songs, Vol. 1 (1920s-30s [1997], Yazoo): [sp]: B+(***)
• The Rose Grew Round the Briar: Early American Rural Love Songs, Vol. 2 (1920s-30s [1997], Yazoo): [sp[: A-

Unpacking: Found in the mail last week:

• Affinity Trio [Eric Jacobson/Pamela York/Clay Schaub]: Hindsight (Origin) [10-20]
• Frank Kohl: Pacific (OA2) [10-20]
• Russell Kranes: Anchor Points (OA2) [10-20]
• Aruán Ortiz: Pastor's Paradox (Clean Feed) [10-20]
• Andrea Veneziani: The Lighthouse (self-released) * [10-06]
• Jennifer Wharton's Bonegasm: Grit & Grace (Sunnyside) [10-20]

Daily Log

Sick today, feeling bad enough there was nothing better to do than take a nap. Got up and tweeted this:

On 9/11 I remember Netanyahu & Peres on TV, all smiles, lecturing us on how now we know it feels like to be targets of terrorism, and offering us their sage advice on how to fight and control terrorists. Not so jovial today, as all they thought they knew has blown up.

Speaking of Which

Blog link.

I wrote the introduction below before Israel blew up. On Saturday, I moved my irregular section on Israel up to the top of the "top story threads" section, ahead of the breakout on the House Speaker -- lots of links there, but the story is pretty pat. The Israel introduction was written Saturday afternoon. I resolved to post this early Sunday, as I have other things I need to do in the evening, so my coverage of the rapidly unfolding Israel story is limited. Still, I think the lessons are obvious, even if no one is writing about them. When I see lines like "this is Israel's 9/11" I process that differently: for America, 9/11 was a sad, sobering day, one that should have led us to a profound reassessment of our national fetish of power; instead, America's leaders took it as an unpardonable insult, and plotted revenge in a foolish effort to make any further defiance unthinkably costly. It didn't work, and in short order America had done more damage to itself than Al Qaeda ever imagined.

The only nation in the world even more hung up on its ability to project power and impose terror is Israel -- so much so that America's neocons are frankly jealous that Israel feels so little inhibition about flaunting its power. Today's formal declaration of war was another kneejerk move. But until Israelis are willing to consider that they may be substantially at fault for their misfortunes, such kneejerk moves will continue, hurting Israel as much as its supposed enemies.

Good chance Music Week won't appear until Tuesday, if then.

I ran across this paragraph on conservatism in Christopher Clark's Revolutionary Spring (pp. 251-252), and thought that, despite its unfortunate source, it has something to say to us:

In a sympathetic reflection on Metternich's political thought, Henry Kissinger, an admirer, exposed what he called 'the conservative dilemma'. Conservatism is the fruit of instability, Kissinger observed, because in a society that was still cohesive 'it would occur to no one to be a conservative'. It thus falls to the conservative to defend, in times of change, what had once been taken for granted. And -- here is the rub -- 'the act of defense introduces rigidity'. The deeper the fissure becomes between the defenders of order and the partisans of change, the greater becomes the 'temptation to dogmatism' until, at some point, no further communication is possible between the contenders, because they no longer speak the same language. 'Stability and reform, liberty and authority, come to appear as antithetical, and political contests turn doctrinal instead of empirical.

I draw several conclusions from this:

1. Reactionaries always emerge too late to halt, let alone reverse, the change they object to. Change is rarely the result of deliberate policy, which makes it hard to anticipate and understand. And change creates winners as well as losers, and those winners have stakes to defend against reactionary attack.

2. What finally motivates reactionaries is rarely the change itself, but their delayed perception that the change poses a threat to their own power, and this concern dominates their focus to the exclusion of anything else. They become rigid, dogmatic, eventually turning their ire on the very idea of flexibility, of reform.

3. Having started from a position of power, their instinct is to use force, especially to repress anyone who threatens to undermine their power, including those pleading for reasonable reforms. Reason itself becomes their enemy.

4. While they may win political victories, their inability to understand the sources and benefits of change, their unwillingness to entertain reforms that benefit others, drives their agenda into the realm of fantasy. They fail, they throw tantrums, they fail even worse. Eventually, they're so discredited they disappear, at least until the next generation of endangered elites repeats the cycle.

Consider several major sources of change since 1750 or so:

• Most profound has been the spread of ideas and reason, which has only accelerated and intensified over time. One was the discovery that we are all individuals, capable of reason and deliberate action, and deserving of respect. Another is that we belong to communities.

• Most relentlessly powerful has been the pursuit of profit: the basic instinct that preceded but grew into capitalism.

• The incremental development of science and technology, which has been accelerated (and sometimes perverted) by capitalism.

• The growth of mass culture (through print, radio, television, internet), and its subsequent fragmentation.

• The vast increase in human population, made possible by longer lives and by the near-total domination of land (and significant appropriation of water and air) on Earth, driven by the above.

Nobody anticipated these changes. Though reactionaries emerged at every stage, they failed, and were forgotten, as generations came to accept the changes behind them, often railing against changes to come. It tells you something that conservatives claim to revere history, but history just dismisses them as selfish, ignorant cranks.

Of course, there is no guarantee that today's reactionaries won't win their political struggles. There may be historical examples where conservatives won out, like the Dark Ages following the Roman Empire, or the closing of China in the 15th Century. But human existence is so precariously balanced on limits of available resources that the threat they pose is huge indeed. Maybe not existential, but not the past they imagine, nor the one they pray for.

Top story threads:

Israel: Last week I folded this section into "World." Friday night I thought about doing that again, which a single link reviewing the Nathan Thrall book wouldn't preclude. Then, as they say, "all hell broke loose." When I got up around Noon Saturday, the Washington Post headline was: Netanyahu: 'We are at war' after Hamas attack. What he probably meant is "thank God we can now kill them all with impunity, all the while blaming our acts on them." The memory of occupiers is much shorter and shallower than the memory of the occupied. The first tweet I saw after this news was from a derecka, who does remember:

Palestinians can't march, can't pray, can't call for boycotts, can't leave, can't stay, can't publish reports, what's should people do? land acknowledgments?

Here's another tweet, from Tony Karon:

Is Netanyahu threatening genocide? "We will turn Gaza into a deserted island. To the citizens of Gaza, I say. You must leave now." Everyone knows the 2m Gazans can't leave because Israel has locked them in for decades. So how will he make it a "deserted island"

Netanyahu is Prime Minister, comanding one of the world's largest and most sophisticated war machines, so I don't think you can dismiss such threats as idle huffing. Looking backward, Doug Henwood tweeted:

Some perspective -- since September 2000:

Palestinians killed by Israeli forces: 10,500
Israeli civilians killed by Palestinians: 881

That's a 12/1 ratio.

I've written hundreds of thousands of words on Israel since 2001. (You can find most of them in my notebooks and also in the "Last Days" series of book drafts.) I've read a lot. I've tried to be reasonable. I've never described myself as "pro-Palestinian" (or pro- any nation or ethnic group, not even American). I suppose you could say I'm "anti-Israeli" in the sense that I object to many policies Israel practices, also "anti-Zionist" in the sense that I believe Zionism is a fundamentally flawed creed and ideology. Still, I always felt that Jews had a right to settle in what became Israel. I just objected to the terms they imposed on the people who lived there before them, and continue to live there.

One piece I can point to is one I wrote on November 17, 2012, which is as good a place as any to start. In 2000, Ariel Sharon took over as Prime Minister, demolished the Oslo Accords that promised some sort of "two-state" division of Israel and Palestine, and provoked the second Intifada (Palestinians called this the Al-Aqsa Intifada, although I've always thought of it as the Shaul Mofaz Intifada, for the Defense Minister whose heavy-handed repression of Palestinian demonstrations kicked the whole thing off). By 2005, the Intifada was defeated in what isn't but could be called the second Nakba (or third, if you want to count the end of the 1937-39 revolt). Sharon then pulled Israel's settlers from their hard-to-defend enclaves in Gaza, sealed the territory off, and terrorized the inhabitants with sonic boom overflights (which had to be stopped, as they also bothered Israelis living near Gaza).

Hamas shifted gears, and ran in elections for the Palestinian Authority. When they won, the old PA leadership, backed by Israel and the US, rejected the results, and tried to seize power -- successfully in the West Bank, but they lost local control of Gaza to Hamas. Ever since then, Israel has tried to managed Gaza as an open-air jail, walled in, blockaded, and periodically strafed and bombed. One such episode was the subject of my 2012 piece. There have been others, every year or two -- so routine, Israelis refer to them as "mowing the grass."

Once Sharon, Netanyahu, and the settlers made it impossible to partition the West Bank -- something, quite frankly, Israel's Labor leaders as far back as 1967 had never had any intention of allowing -- the most obvious solution in the world was for Israel to cut Gaza free, allow it to be a normal, self-governing state, its security guaranteed by Egypt and the West (not Israel), with its economy generously subsidized by Arab states and the West. This didn't happen because neither side wanted it: Palestinians still clung to the dream of living free in their homeland (perhaps in emulation of the Jews), so didn't want to admit defeat; and Israelis hated the idea of allowing any kind of Palestinian state, and thought they could continue to impose control indefinitely. Both sides were being short-sighted and stupid, but one should place most of the blame on Israel, as Israel had much more freedom to act sensibly. But by all means, save some blame for the US, which from 2000 on has increasingly surrendered its foreign policy to blindly support Israel, no matter how racist and belligerent its politicians became.

I'll add a few more links, but don't expect much. It looks like this will take weeks to play out, and while the lessons should be obvious to any thinking being, Israel and America have dark blinders to any suggestion that the world doesn't automatically bend to their will.

Updates, by Sunday afternoon: Israel formally declares war against Hamas as hundreds killed on both sides; U.S. to provide arms, shift naval group toward Mideast; death toll in Israel, Gaza passes 1,100.

• Zack Beauchamp: [10-07] Why did Hamas invade Israel? "The assault on southern Israel exposed the reality of the Palestinian conflict."

• Jonathan Cook: [10-08] The West's hypocrisy towards Gaza's breakout is stomach-turning.

• Jonathan Guyer: [10-07] This Gaza war didn't come out of nowhere: "Everyone forgot about the Palestinians -- conditions have been set for two decades, and Biden's focus on Israel-Saudi talks may have lit the match."

• Maha Hussaini: [10-08] Why Gaza's attack on Israel was no surprise.

• Ellen Ioanes: [10-07] Hamas has launched an unprecedented strike on Israel. Here's what you need to know.

• Lubna Masarwa: [10-07] Israel 'can no longer control its own fate' after stunning Palestinian attack: Interview with Meron Rapoport, arguing that "Israeli military and intelligence is at a new low."

• Haggai Matar: [10-07] Gaza's shock attack has terrified Israelis. It should also unveil the context: "The dread Israelis are feeling after today's assault, myself included, has been the daily experience of millions of Palestinians for far too long."

• James North: [10-03] Nathan Thrall has written a masterpiece about Israel's occupation: "A Day in the Life of Abed Salama tells the story of Israel's occupation of Palestine through one family's tragedy."

• Paul Pillar: [10-07] Why Hamas attacked and what happens next.

• Richard Silverstein: [10-08] Gaza invasion: Over 700 Israeli dead, 230 Palestinian dead as Israel prepares massive assault.

• Philip Weiss/Michael Arria: [10-07] Democrats and liberal Zionists decry 'terrorists' and rally to 'stand with Israel': Of course they did, but it's one thing to decry the sudden outbreak of violence (the Bernie Sanders quote is an example; he didn't even resort to the coded language of "terrorism"), quite another to cheer Israel on in inflicting far greater violence on Palestinians (even if not explicit, a "I stand with Israel" amounts to the same thing). Morever, a little self-consciousness would help. I don't disagree that "the targeting and kidnapping of civilians is an inexcusable, outrageous war crime," but culpability isn't limited to one side (even momentarily). Israel has thousands of Palestinians in jail (with or without "due process," which in Israel is designed to be discriminatory).

  I especially hate the "Israel has the right to self-defense" line people habitually parrot. Palestinians don't? As a pacifist, I might argue not, but not in a way that would exempt Israelis. When something like this happens, the first, and really the only, matter is to stop it, then to learn, adjust, and make it unthinkable in the future. I dare say that no one in the echelons of Israeli government is thinking along those lines. Probably no one in Hamas either, possibly because they've spent decades studying power in Israel.

The shutdown and the speaker: A week ago, after acting like a complete ass for months, Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reversed course and offered a fairly clean continuing spending bill, which instantly passed, cleared the Senate, and was signed by Biden. A small number of Republicans (eight), led by Matt Gaetz (R-FL), felt so betrayed by not shutting down the government that they forced a vote to fire McCarthy, which succeeded.

• Nicole Narea/Andrew Prokop: [10-04] 9 questions about Kevin McCarthy's downfall and House GOP chaos, answered.

• Matthew Cooper: [10-03] The day after the McCarthy ouster: "After the shock wears off, remember that this cannibalism started in the 1990s and won't go away."

• Hakeem Jeffries: [10-06] A bipartisan coalition is the way forward for the House: This won't happen, because the faction of Republicans who would even consider it is even smaller than the Gaetz faction that just wanted to trash the place. But unless something like this happens, the House will continue to be a public embarrassment, at least until the 2024 elections, at which point it will either get better or even worse.

• Ben Jacobs: [10-03] Kevin McCarthy's historic humiliation.

• Annie Karni: [10-04] From a Capitol Hill basement, Bannon stokes the Republican Party meltdown.

• John Nichols: [10-05] The "Trump for Speaker" campaign shipwrecks on the shoals of stupidity: Turns out Republican actually had a rule against an indicted felon becoming Speaker. So Trump resorted to the next worse option, endorsing Jim Jordan. Nichols: [10-06] Trump's pick for Speaker is a nightmare waiting to happen.

• Timothy Noah: [10-05] Who did in Kevin McCarthy? Maybe not Gaetz. Maybe not even Trump. "James Carville thought the bond vigilantes controlled the world. He just may have been right."

• Nikki McCann Ramirez: [10-06] Trump keys on Jim Jordan's wrestling history in speaker endorsement: "omitting the scandal at the center of his coaching career."

• Norman J Ornstein: [10-06] How Kevin McCarthy planted the seeds of Kevin McCarthy's demise: "Remember the 'young gun'? He doesn't want you to."

• David Rothkopf: [10-06] A broken Congress is what MAGA always wanted.

• Leo Sands: [10-04] Who voted Kevin McCarthy out? These 8 House Republicans.

• Will Sommer: [10-06] Fox News tries to referee House GOP chaos but cancels speaker 'debate': Most likely Fox simply wanted to exploit the situation for profit, while reminding everyone that they're the Mecca every Republican prostrates and prays to (except, it would appear, Trump). On the other hand, even the House demagogues realize that appealing to the public would only further exacerbate their task of finding a leader no one hates enough to kill over.

• Michael Tomasky: [10-06] Six reasons why liberals should salivate at a Speaker Jordan.

Trump:

• Jim Geraghty: [10-04] Populist passions, not Trump, rule the GOP. To the extent that anyone can be said to rule the Republican Party, it's still the billionaires who fund the party, and pull strings behind the scenes. Aside from a few fixed ideas about taxes -- something other people should pay -- they aren't completely aligned, as they have varying business interests (some depend on government support, others loathe government interference) and personalities (many are assholes, a trait which great wealth promotes, but they are assholes in varied ways). Trump is, at least nominally, one of the billionaires, but he is a peculiar one: extremely, flagrantly outspoken, but not much of a leader. That's largely because his thoughts are received from elsewhere (mostly his Fox News gurus). For years, Republican thought leaders cynically issued their dog whistles. Not Trump: he's just a particularly loud dog.

  I tend to resist any linkage between Trump and populism -- I still respect and admire the original 1890s People's Party -- but sure, he reflects his followers much more than they do him. The result is often incoherent, which doesn't seem to bother either, especially as they're defined much more by what they hate than what they want.

• Tori Otten: [10-06] Trump Organization exec admits he considered fraud part of the job: "Jeff McConney is blowing the door wide open on exactly how the Trump Organization operated."

• Nia Prater: [10-03] Trump hit with gag order after targeting judge's clerk.

• Nikki McCann Ramirez: [10-05] Trump blabbed about US nuclear capabilities to Australian billionaire: who then "shared the potentially sensitive information with dozens of other people."

• Tatyana Tandanpolie: [10-06] Trump abruptly drops Cohen lawsuit ahead of deposition: "Trump sued former fixer Michael Cohen for $500 million -- then backed out after repeatedly delaying deposition." Igor Derysh previously wrote about this suit: [04-14] Experts say Trump's lawsuit against Michael Cohen could badly backfire. As Cohen put it: "I can't believe how stupid he was to have actually filed it."

• Emily Zemler: [10-05] Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson says Trump threw his food 'once or twice a week'.

DeSantis, and other Republicans:

• Perry Bacon Jr: [10-04] Republicans are in disarray. But they are still winning a lot on policy. Way, way too much, considering that their policy choices are almost all deadass wrong.

• Paul Krugman: [10-05] Will voters send in the clowns? A lot of things that show up in polls make little sense, but few show this much cognitive dissonance: "Yet Americans, by a wide margin, tell pollsters that Republicans would be better than Democrats at running the economy." Krugman spends a lot of time arguing that the economy isn't so bad, but regardless of the current state, how can anyone see Republicans as better?

Biden and/or the Democrats:

• Kate Aronoff: [10-05] Biden scraps environmental laws to build Trump's border wall. Also:

  • Nicole Narea: [10-05] How Biden ended up building part of Trump's border wall.

• Nicole Narea: [10-02] Who is Laphonza Butler, California's new senator? I did a double take on this line about the Democrats already campaigning for the Feinstein seat: "All three have sizable war chests for the campaign, with Schiff, Porter, and Lee having $29.8 million, $10.3 million, and $1.4 million on hand." Sure, they're all "sizable," but sizes are vastly different. They are currently polling at 20% (0.71 points per million dollars), 17% (1.65 ppmd), and 7% (5.0 ppmd).

• Stephen Prager: [10-03] Voters have the right to be dissatisfied with 'Bidenomics': "The president's defenders think voters are ungrateful for a good economy. But people's economics experiences vary widely, and much of the country has little to appreciate Biden for." Well, compared to what? Not if you're comparing to Republicans. I'll grant that it can be hard to gauge, including shifts from Obama that I believe are very significant. But blaming Biden for canceling the Child Tax Credit misses the key point that Democrats didn't have enough votes to extend it. Same for the rest of the cutbacks from the Build Back Better bill that Bernie Sanders presented -- some of which (the parts that Joe Manchin accepted) was eventually passed. This piece cites another by Stephen Semler: [08-15] Bidenomics isn't working for working people. One thing that jumps out here is the chart "The U.S. is Shrinking Its Social Safety Net," where everything listed (and since phased out) was part of the remarkable pandemic lockdown relief act, which Trump got panicked into signing, but which was almost all written and passed by Pelosi and Schumer. To get it passed and signed, they had to sunset the provisions. Democrats need to campaign on bringing them back, and building on them.

Legal matters and other crimes:

• Ian Millhiser:

  • [10-02] The Supreme Court's new term will be dominated by dangerous and incoherent lawsuits.

  • [10-02] Two right-wing judges seem to be trying to rig a US House race.

  • [10-03] The Supreme Court's uncharacteristic moment of sanity: "Justices considering a case against the CFPB seem unlikely to trigger a second Great Depression."

  • [10-04] The Supreme Court argues about how to make a terrible civil rights case go away.

  • [10-05] The high stakes in a new Supreme Court showdown over gerrymandering.

• Sara Morrison: [10-04] The government's case to break up Amazon, explained. Author also wrote (with AW Ohlheiser): [10-04] 9 questions about the government's effort to break up Amazon.

• Arn Pearson/David Armiak: [10-04] After 50 years, this right-wing law factory is crazier than ever: "The American Legislative Exchange Council is where corporations and far-right groups go to buy government policy."

• Vishal Shankar: [10-02] Clarence Thomas has yet another huge conflict of interest: "The Revolving Door Project research reveals that right-wing elites in the Horatio Alger Association stand to benefit from a lawsuit attempting to destroy the CFPB. The group has close ties to Clarence Thomas."

Climate and environment:

• Benji Jones: [10-08] It's clearer than ever that we're pushing the Amazon rainforest to its dreaded demise.

• Rebecca Leber: [10-05] The propane industry's weird obsession with school buses, explained. We are pushing toward electric school buses, but they require a lot of power, are expensive up front, and have range limits that are sometimes too short. Hence the sales push for propane, which burns cleaner than diesel, but is still fossil fuel, exhausting carbon dioxide.

Economic matters:

• Eric Levitz: [10-04] Are rising bond yields and deficits a national crisis?

Ukraine War:

• Connor Echols: [10-06] Diplomacy Watch: Ukraine's arduous path to EU accession: "A hopeful summit obscured the difficulties facing Kyiv as it pushes to join the bloc."

• George Beebe: [10-04] Will Ukraine's effort go bankrupt gradually . . . then suddenly?

• Dave DeCamp: [10-08] Biden considering huge $100 billion Ukraine spending package: If at first you don't succeed, go crazy! Good chance he'll be adding military aid for Israel before this passes. After all, look how successful the last 50 years of aid was.

• David Ignatius: [10-05] A hard choice lies ahead in Ukraine, but only Ukrainians can make it: First I've heard of a McCain Institute, but if someone wanted a pro-war counter to the Quincy Institute, that's a pretty obvious name. As for the opinion piece, it is half-obvious, and half-ridiculous. The obvious part is that Ukraine, as well as Russia, will have to freely agree to any armistice. The ridiculous part is the idea that the US shouldn't exert any effort to achieve peace. The "defer to Ukraine" mantra is a blank check policy, promoted by people who want to see the war go on indefinitely.

• Jen Kirby: [10-03] The West's united pro-Ukraine front is showing cracks. The leading vote-getter in Slovakia has promised to end military aid to Ukraine. Still, he's a long ways from being able to form a government. Biden's latest request for Ukraine got dropped from the bill the House finally passed to avoid (or forestall) a government shutdown. On a straight vote, it would probably have passed, but straight votes are hard to come by.

• Jim Lobe: [10-06] Iraq War boosters rally GOP hawks behind more Ukraine aid: "Elliott Abrams' 'Vandenberg Coalition' also assails the Biden administration for being soft on Russia." Wasn't Abrams the guy who back in 2005 was whispering in Sharon's ear about how a unilateral dismantling of Israeli settlements in Gaza with no PA handover could be spun as a peace move but would actually allow Israel to attack Gaza with impunity, any time they might choose to? (Like in the lead up to elections, or in the interim between Obama's election and when he took office, so he's have to pledge allegiance to Israel before he could do anything about it.)

• Siobhán O'Grady/Anastacia Galouchka: [10-06] Russian missile attack at Ukraine funeral overwhelmingly killed civilians: Link caption was more to the point: "Overwhelming grief in Ukrainian village hit by strike: 'There is no point in living.'" But already you can see the effort to spin tragedy into a propaganda coup.

• Robert Wright: [10-06] The real lesson of Ukraine for Taiwan: Attempting to control a conflict through increased deterrence can easily backfire, precipitating the event one supposedly meant to deter. When Russia started threatening to invade Ukraine, Biden didn't take a step back and say, whoa!, can't we talk about this? No, his administration cranked up their sanctions threats, and expedited their increasing armament of Ukraine. Putin looked at the lay of the land and the timelines, and convinced himself that his odds were better sooner than later. Nor is this the only case where sanctions have backfired: the context for Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was America's embargo of steel and oil. World War I started largely because Germany decided that war with Russia was inevitable, and their chances of winning were better in 1914 than they would be later. All these examples are bonkers, but that's what happens when states put their faith in military power. China has long claimed Taiwan (going back to the day when Taiwan still claimed all of China), but Peking has been willing to play a long game, for 75 years now. But the more America wants to close the door on possible reunification, the more likely China is to panic and strike first.

Around the world:

• Masha Gessen: [09-29] The violent end of Nagorno-Karabakh's fight for independence. I cited this article last week, without comment. I then started thinking about another article last week: Richard Silverstein: [09-29] Azerbaijan: Israeli arms sales, greased palms, ethnic conflict. And lo, I became suspicious whether Israel's siding with Azerbaijan was not just to make money, but to promote a mass exodus ("ethnic cleansing") of Armenians from newly occupied territory. Perhaps if they could show other examples, they could justify disposing of their Palestinian population the same way? If so, the uprising in Gaza is likely to accelerate their schedule.

• Jonathan Guyer: [10-02] How MBS has won over Washington and the world: Five years after journalist Jamal Khashoggi was "murdered, dismembered, and disappeared" in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the Saudis are back in Washington's good graces. Also on Saudi Arabia:

  • Trinidad Deiros Bronte: [10-03] Saudi Arabia punishes critical tweets with the death penalty or 45 years in prison.

  • Mitchell Plitnick: [10-06] Biden's increasing pressure for a Saudi-Israeli deal: "As with past Abraham Accord agreements, it is simply a way to sell a massive military upgrade as a 'peace deal.'"

  • Sarah Leah Whitson: [10-02] Five years after Khashoggi's murder, MBS is laughing.

• Ahmed Ibrahim: [10-03] How Somalia never got back up after Black Hawk Down: "The Battle of Mogadishu in October 1993 unleashed decades of American intervention with very little to show for it."

• Louisa Loveluck, et al: 10-05] How government neglect, misguided policies doomed Libya to deadly floods.

Other stories:

Kate Cohen: [10-03] America doesn't need more God. It needs more atheists. Essay adapted from the author's book: We of LIttle Faith: Why I Stopped Pretending to Believe (and Maybe You Should Too).

Kevin T Dugan: [10-03] The 3 most important things to know about Michael Lewis's SBF book: The book is Going Infinite, which started out as one of the writer's profiles of unorthodox finance guys, and has wound up as some kind of "letter to the jury" on the occasion of crypto conman Sam Bankman-Fried's fraud trial. Also on Lewis:

• Gideon Lewis-Kraus: [10-04] Michael Lewis's big contrarian bet.

Karen J Greenberg: [10-05] The last prisoners? With its prisoner population reduced to 30, why can't America close Guantanamo?

Eric Levitz: [10-06] Don't celebrate when people you disagree with get murdered. "In view of many extremely online, spritually unswell conservatives, [Ryan] Carson's brutal death was a form of karmic justice. . . . Days earlier, the nihilist right greeted the murder of progressive Philadelphia journalist Josh Kruger with the same grotesque glee."

Blaise Malley: [10-05] The plan to avert a new Cold War: Review of Michael Doyle's book, Cold Peace: Avoiding the New Cold War. "If all sides continue to perceive actions by the other as hostile, then they will constantly be at the precipice of a military confrontation."

Charles P Pierce: [10-05] Guns are now the leading cause of accidental death among American kids.

JJ Porter: [10-05] Conservative postliberalism is a complete dead end: A review of Patrick Deneen's Regime Change: Toward a Postliberal Future, as if you needed (or wanted) one.

Emily Raboteau: [10-03] The good life: "What can we learn from the history of utopianism?" Review of Kristen R Ghodsee: Everyday Utopia: What 2,000 Years of Wild Experiments Can Teach Us About the Good Life. Also see the Current Affairs interview with Ghodsee: [10-04] Why we need utopias.

Corey Robin: [10-04] How do we survive the Constitution? Review of the new book, Tyranny of the Minority by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, the comparative political scientists who previously wrote up many examples of How Democracies Die. The authors are critical of various quirks in the US Constitution that have skewed recent elections toward Republicans, thus thwarting popular will and endangering democracy in America. I haven't spent much time with these books, or similar ones where the authors (like Yascha Mounk) seem to cherish democracy more for aesthetic than practical reasons. My own view is that the Constitution, even with its imperfections, is flexible enough to work for most people, if we could just get them to vote for popular interests. The main enemy of democracy is money, abetted by the media that chases it. The solution is to make people conscious, much less of how the Founding Fathers sold us short than of the graft and confusion that sells us oligarchy.

By the way, Robin mentions a 2022 book: Joseph Fishkin/William E Forbath: The Anti-Oligarchy Constitution: Reconstructing the Economic Foundations of American Democracy. I haven't read this particular book, but I have read several others along the same lines (focused more on the authors and/or the text, whereas Fishkin & Forbath follow how later progressives referred back to the Constitution): Ganesh Sitaraman: The Crisis of the Middle-Class Constitution: Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic (2017); Erwin Chemerinsky: We the People: A Progressive Reading of the Constitution for the Twenty-First Century (2018); Danielle Allen: Our Declaration: A Reading of the Declaration of Independence in Defense of Equality (2015). I should also mention Eric Foner: The Second Founding: How the Civil War and Reconstruction Remade the Constitution (2019).

Nathan J Robinson: [10-06] How to spot corporate bullshit: "A new book shows that the same talking points have been recycled for centuries, to oppose every form of progressive change." Review of Corporate Bullsh*t, by Nick Hanauer, Joan Walsh, and Donald Cohen, with plenty of examples.

Missy Ryan: [10-04] Over 80 percent of four-star retirees are employed in defense industry: "Twenty-six of 32 four-star admirals and generals who retired from June 2018 to July 2023." Based on the following report:

• William Hartung: [10-04] March of the four-stars: The role of retired generals and admirals in the arms industry.

Washington Post Staff: [10-03] The Post spent the past year examining US life expectancy. Here's what we found:

1. Chronic diseases are killing us
2. Gaps between poor and wealthy communities are growing
3. US life expectancy is falling behind global peers
4. The seeds of this crisis are planted in childhood
5. American politics are proving toxic

Related articles:

• Joel Achenbach/Dan Keating/Laurie McGinley/Akilah Johnson/Jahi Chikwendiu: [10-03] An epidemic of chronic illness is killing us too soon. Toward the end, they have a section called "No simple answer," but the obvious one is a universal health care right. Most chronic diseases are manageable with care, provided that care is readily available.

• Lauren Weber/Dan Diamond/Dan Keating: [10-03] How red-state politics are shaving years off American lives.

Music Week

Expanded blog post, October archive (in progress).

Tweet: Music Week: 43 albums, 2 A-list

Music: Current count 40961 [40918] rated (+43), 31 [30] unrated (+1).

Pretty major Speaking of Which last night (8867 words, 114 links). My wife was more critical than I was of Fredrik deBoer, and recommended the Becca Rothfeld review that I had linked to, only to note that deBoer didn't like it. It now seems to me like she does a pretty fair job of summarizing deBoer's points and their limits. Final paragraph, which doesn't sound like an elite trying to usurp a mass movement and turn it into a vanity project:

It is hardly a shock that BLM and #MeToo attracted some unsavory allies. Mass movements are, by definition, massive, and every large group includes some lunatics on the margins. To point to the existence of a few fanatic hangers-on is hardly to indict a movement or its methods. Indeed, a motley coalition is -- for better or worse -- a necessary result of any truly democratic foray. Who, then, is DeBoer's intended audience? Movements are not agents amenable to persuasion. There is no secretary to whom DeBoer could hand a petition, demanding more stringent "message discipline." There is only the flash and the fury, the sudden surge of belief in a better life. If the wayward beast of a mass action cannot always be coaxed into behaving rationally, so much the better: That is the source of its chaos, but also the source of its force.

I've been focusing a lot on books lately because that's the forum -- not blogs and podcasts, and certainly not X -- where serious thinkers have the time and space to try to put their thoughts into coherent form. My latest Book Roundup has many of these, and this post adds several more: ones I missed like DeBoer's How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement, Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein's A Fabulous Failure, Steve Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt's Tyranny of the Minority, and Kevin Slack's ridiculous War on the American Republic; one I knew was coming soon: Heather Cox Richardson's Democracy Awakening, so held off on; and a couple future books I only just heard about: Zack Beauchamp's The Reactionary Spirit, and Hunter Walker and Luppe B. Luppen's The Truce. (There are also mentions of several other books I had previously written about.)

One thing I've been thinking about a lot is how changes happen, and why they move in some directions and not others. This isn't the place to attempt a disquisition on what I think, but I will note that my recent reading in Hobsbawm and Clark on 1789-1848 is giving me a lot of case studies (oddly enough, even drawing on Turchin's "elite overproduction" thesis).

One final note is that after I slogged through Hobsbawm's first volume over 5-6 weeks, my wife got an audible of his second volume, and finished it within 3-4 days. Makes me wonder what I could get done if I wasn't listening to music all the time.

I lost less time thrashing this week, trying to find something to play next, mostly thanks to Phil Overeem's latest list. Two records I didn't get around to because they're just too damn long are DJ Sabrina the Teenage DJ's Destiny (six LPs) and the big box (4-CD) of the Replacements' Tim. Given that Tim has long been my favorite of their albums, and that everyone is raving about the new mix, the latter seems like a lock. I did manage to make it through two more sets that ran too long, but were remarkable before I lost track: Kashmere Stage Band and Les Rallizes Dénudés. Phil also initiated the Money for Guns dive. I love that he comes up with records like these.

Still only had one A-list album when I cut off the week, but it took long enough to do the Streamnotes indexing today that I got to the Allison Russell album, and decided to move it up. I also knocked off three jazz CDs from the queue, but they can (and should) wait. Until lately, the queue was almost all scheduled well into the future, but release dates have started to come fast -- ten (of 31) albums are already out. I need to work on that.

I'm starting to think about the Jazz Critics Poll this year. It would be nice to get a jump on it for the first time ever, rather than getting blindsided a few days before the ballots need to be sent out. If you have suggestions, drop me a line.

New records reviewed this week:

• Idris Ackamoor & the Pyramids: Afro Futuristic Dreams (2023, Strut): [sp]: B+(***)
• Farida Amadou/Jonas Cambien/Dave Rempis: On the Blink (2022 [2023], Aerophonic): [cd]: A- [10-10]
• Zoh Amba: O Life, O Light Vol. 2 (2021 [2023], 577): [bc]: B+(***)
• Emil Amos: Zone Black (2023, Drag City): [sp]: B+(*)
• Florian Arbenz: Conversation #10: Inland (2023, Hammer): [sp]: B+(**)
• Kyle Bruckmann/Tim Daisy/Phillip Greenlief/Lisa Mezzacappa: Semaphore (2022 [2023], Relay): [bc]: B+(***)
• Chai: Chai (2023, Sub Pop): [sp]: B+(**)
• Margo Cilker: Valley of Heart's Delight (2023, Fluff and Gravy: [sp]: B+(***)
• Brent Cobb: Southern Star (2023, Ol' Buddy/Thirty Tigers): [sp]: B+(**)
• Jeff Coffin/Jordan Perlson/Viktor Krauss: Coffin/Perlson/Krauss (2023, Ear Up): [cd]: B+(***)
• Hollie Cook: Happy Hour in Dub (2023, Merge): [sp]: B+(*)
• Charles Wesley Godwin: Family Ties (2023, self-released): [sp]: B+(*)
• Laurel Halo: Atlas (2023, Awe): [sp]: B
• Heather Lynne Horton: Get Me to a Nunnery (2023, Pauper Sky): [sp]: B-
• Loraine James: Gentle Confrontation (2023, Hyperdub): [sp]: B+(*)
• Nils Kugelmann: Stormy Beauty (2022 [2023], ACT): [sp]: B+(**)
• Lewsberg: Out and About (2023, self-released): [sp]: B+(**)
• Fred Lonberg-Holm/Tim Daisy: Current 23 (2022 [2023], Relay): [bc]: B+(**)
• Lydia Loveless: Nothing's Gonna Stand in My Way Again (2023, Bloodshot): [sp]: B+(*)
• Francisco Mela and Zoh Amba: Causa Y Efecto Vol. 1 (2021 [2022], 577): [dl]: B+(***)
• MIKE/Wiki/The Alchemist: Faith Is a Rock (2023, ALC): [sp]: B+(*)
• Billy Mohler: Ultraviolet (2023, Contagious Music): [cdr]: B+(***) [10-13]
• Money for Guns: All the Darkness That's in Your Head (2023, self-released): [sp]: B+(**)
• Wolfgang Muthspiel: Dance of the Elders (2022 [2023], ECM): [sp]: B+(**)
• Jessica Pavone: Clamor (2023, Out of Your Head): [cd]: B+(***) [10-06]
• Chappell Roan: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (2023, Amusement/Island): [sp]: B+(**)
• Bobby Rush: All My Love for You (2023, Deep Rush/Thirty Tigers): [sp]: B+(**)
• Allison Russell: The Returner (2023, Fantasy): [sp]: A-
• Slayyyter: Starfucker (2023, Fader): [sp]: B+(***)
• Veronica Swift: Veronica Swift (2023, Mack Avenue): [sp]: B-
• That Mexican OT: Lonestar Luchador (2023, Manifest/Good Talk/Good Money Global): [sp]: B+(**)
• Tinashe: BB/ANG3L (2023, Nice Life, EP): [sp]: B+(*)
• Brad Turner Quintet: The Magnificent (2023, Cellar): [cd]: B+(*)
• Fay Victor: Blackcity Black Black Is Beautiful (2023, Northern Spy): [sp]: B+(**)
• Håvard Wiik/Tim Daisy: Slight Return (2023, Relay): [bc]: B+(***)
• Simón Willson: Good Company (2022 [2023], Fresh Sound New Talent): [sp]: B+(**) [10-13]
• John Wojciechowski: Swing of the Pendulum (2022 [2023], Afar Music): [cd]: B+(**)
• Miguel Zenón & Luis Perdomo: El Arte Del Bolero, Vol. 2 (2023, Miel Music): [sp]: B+(***)

Recent reissues, compilations, and vault discoveries:

• The Frustrated Bachelors: In the End It Wasn't Enough: All the Good Ones 2003-2006 (2003-06 [2023], Money for Guns): [sp]: B+(**)
• Les Rallizes Dénudés: Citta' '93 (1993 [2023], Temporal Drift): [bc]: B+(***)
• Money for Guns: Dead Tracks (2007-20 [2022], Money for Guns): [sp]: B

Old music:

• Farida Amadou/Pavel Tchikov: Mal De Terre (2020 [2021], Trouble in Mind): [sp]: B+(*)
• Kashmere Stage Band: Texas Thunder Soul 1968-1974 (1968-74 [2011], Now-Again, 2CD): [sp]: B+(***)
• Wolfgang Muthspiel/Scott Colley/Brian Blade: Angular Blules (2018 [2020], ECM): [sp]: B+(**)
• Ernst-Ludwig Luten Petrowsky/Uschi Brüning/Michael Griener: Ein Résumé (2013, Jazzwerkstatt): [sp]: B+(**)

Unpacking: Found in the mail last week:

• Constantine Alexander: Firetet (self-released) [10-18]
• Geof Bradfield/Richard D Johnson/John Tate/Samuel Jewell: Our Heroes (Afar Music) [09-08]
• Gonzalo Rubalcaba: Borrowed Flowers (Top Stop Music) [09-15]
• The Angelica Sanchez Nonet: Nighttime Creatures (Pyroclastic) [10-27]
• Joe Wittman: Trio Works (self-released) [11-01]
• John Wojciechowski: Swing of the Pendulum (Afar Music) [08-18]

Speaking of Which

Blog link.

Front page, top headline in Wichita Eagle on Saturday: McCarthy's last-ditch plan to keep government open collapses. The headline came from an AP article, dropping the final "making a shutdown almost certain" clause. This headline, says more about the media mindset in America than it does about the politics it does such a poor job of reporting on. McCarthy is not trying to avert a shutdown (at least with this bill). Even if he somehow managed to pass it, there was no chance of it passing the Senate without major revisions, which his caucus would then reject. His core problem is that he insists on passing an extreme partisan bill, but no bill is extreme enough for the faction of Republicans dead set on shutting down the government, and nothing he can do will appease them.

If he was at all serious about avoiding shutdown, he'd offer a bill that would attract enough Democrat votes to make up for his inevitable losses on the extreme right. That's what McConnell did in the Senate, with a bill that passed 77-19. But House Republicans follow what they call the Hastert Rule, which states that leaders can only present bills approved by a majority of the caucus -- in effect, that means the right-wing can hold bills hostage, even mandatory spending bills, and looking for bipartisan support is pointless. McCarthy had to compromise even further to gain enough votes to be elected Speaker.

If the mainstream media refuses to provide even the barest of meaningful context, this kabuki propaganda will just continue, to the detriment of all.

[PS: On Saturday afternoon, after I wrote the above, McCarthy did just that, passing a bill 335-91, with 90 Republicans and 1 Democrat opposed. The bill continues spending for 45 days, adds disaster relief funds, extends federal flood insurance, and reauthorizes FAA, but does not include the new Ukraine aid Biden wanted.]

Top story threads:

The shutdown: [PS: Congress finally passed a continuing spending resolution on Saturday, after McCarthy's "last-ditch" bill failed to pass the House. The intro below -- original title was "Drowning government in the bathtub" -- was written before this bill passed, as were the articles dated earlier. On the other hand, we're only 45 days away from the next big shutdown scare, which the same bunch of clowns and creeps are almost certain again to push to the brink.]

The Grover Nordquist quote (from 2001) is: "I just want to shrink [government] down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub." Later he managed to get every Republican in Congress to sign onto his "Taxpayer Protection Pledge," which would seem to commit them to the ultimate destruction of the federal government. None of this slowed, let alone reversed the growth of government -- it just ensured that the growth would be funded mostly by deficits, which conveniently give Republicans something else to whine about, even though they're mostly just tax giveaways to the very rich. So whenever an opportunity arises for Republicans to vent their hatred of the government and their disgust over the people that government serves, they rise up and break things. One of those opportunities is this week, when the previous year's spending bills expire, without the House having passed new ones for next year. Without new authorization, large parts of government are supposed to shut down, giving Republicans a brief opportunity to impress Grover Nordquist. Then, after a few days or a couple weeks, they'll quietly pass a resolution to allow their incompetence to escape notice for another year. You see, most of what government actually does supports the very same rich people who donate to Republican politicians. I could file all of these stories under Republicans, since they are solely responsible for this nonsense, but on this occasion, let's break them out.

• Li Zhou:

  • [09-28] Everything you need to know about government shutdowns.

  • [09-26] The Republican vs. Republican feud behind the government shutdown, explained.

• Ryan Cooper: [09-27] There's an easy way to end government shutdowns forever: "No other rich democracy endures America's brand of budgetary chaos."

• Hugh Hewitt: [09-28] The GOP's Knucklehead Caucus courts a shutdown for no good reason. Long-time conservative columnist, a party loyalist, worked for Nixon and Reagan, ran the Nixon library, has hosted right-wing radio and TV shows. Still takes time out to attack Menendez and Hunter Biden, and make excuses for Ken Buck, who evidently only looks and acts like a knuckelead.

Post-deal:

• Corbin Bolies: [10-01] Rep. Matt Gaetz: I will force vote to can McCarthy 'this week'.

• Sam Brodey: [10-01] It's bad news that so many in the GOP are pissed about averting a shutdown: On the other hand, every tantrum here should be recorded and thrown back in their faces in 2024. It's bad news because these idiots still have considerable power to wreak havoc. Vote them down to a small minority and it will merely be sad and pathetic, which is what they deserve.

• David Rothkopf: [09-30] All that drama and the House GOP's only win was for the Kremlin: I'm sorry to have to say this, but Russiagate -- not the "collusion" but the jingoistic Cold War revival -- isn't over yet. One thing that the Republican right understands is that Russia's "expansionism" is fundamentally limited by their sense of nationhood, and as such is no real threat to their own "America First" nationalism. Democrats don't understand this. They view Russia through two lenses: one is as a rival to the US in a zero-sum game for world domination -- which was a myth in the Cold War era, and pure projection now; the other is that Putin has embraced a social conservatism and anti-democratic repression to a degree that Republicans plainly aspire to, so they are strongly disposed to treat both threats as linked. (Which, by the way, is not total whimsy: Steve Bannon seems to have taken as his life's work the formation of an International Brotherhood of Fascists.) The problem with this is that it turns Democrats into supporters of empire and war abroad, and those things not only breed enemies, they undermine true democracy at home. Still, I'm not unamused by Rothkopf taking a cheap shot in this particular moment. I just worry about the mentality that makes one think that's a real point.

• Michael Scherer: [09-30] Shutdown deal avoids political pain for Republican moderates: For starters, this helps with definition: A "moderate" is a Republican who worries more about losing to a Democrat than one who worries more about being challenged by an even crazier Republican. Shutting down the government is a play that appeals to the crazies, but has little enthusiasm for most people, even ones who generally vote Republican.

The Republican also-rans second debate: Six of the first debate's eight made their way to the Reagan Library in California, again hosted by Fox. Bear in mind that any judgments about winners and losers are relative.

• Intelligencer Staff: [09-27] Republican Debate: At least 33 things you missed. If you're up for the gory details, here are the live updates. Notable quotes: "It's kind of sexist, but mostly it's just gross, and it drives home one essential fact about the people on tonight's stage. They are unrelatable freaks. There is something deeply off-putting about each person on stage." Also: "Ramaswamy: Thank you for speaking while I'm interrupting."

• Mariana Alfaro: [09-27] Republican presidential candidates blame UAW strike on Biden: What? For giving workers hope they might gain back some ground after forty years of Republican-backed union busting?

• Zack Beauchamp: [09-27] The Republican debate is fake: "With Trump dominating the GOP primary, the debate is a cosplay of a competitive election -- and a distraction from an ugly truth."

• Aaron Blake: [09-27] The winners and losers of the second Republican debate:

  • Winner: Nikki Haley: The press hope for a rational Republican is getting real desperate here. Aside from dunking on Ramaswamy, the other claims for her are really spurious. How can anyone argue that the UAW strike was the result of "the impact of inflation on the workers"?
  • Winner: Donald Trump: "Okay, maybe this one's unoriginal."
  • Winner: Obamacare: Because Pence repeatedly avoided the question?
  • Loser: GOP debates: QED, right?
  • Loser: Ron DeSantis: "there was nothing that seemed likely to arrest his backsliding."
  • Loser: GOP moderation on immigration.

• Jim Geraghty/Megan McArdle/Ramesh Ponnuru: [09-28] 'It sucks:' Conservatives discuss the GOP primary after the latest debate. I didn't listen to the audio -- I'm listening to music almost all the time; I can read at the same time, but I don't have free time for podcasts -- so I'm not sure where Geraghty is going with this, but the gist is that Trump sucks all the oxygen out of the party, and nobody else has the guts to say that he's suffocating the party just to stroke his own ego, because even if he somehow manages to win, he doesn't know how to actually do anything, other than keep sucking. (Pun? Sure.)

• Eric Levitz: [09-28] Who won (and lost) the second Republican debate:

  • Winner: Vivek Ramaswamy: "came across as a slicks sociopath."
  • Winner: Chris Christie: "we're gonna call you Donald DUCK."
  • Losers: All of them: "In seriousness, there were no winners in Simi Valley." He then runs the rest down one by one.

• Harold Meyerson: [09-28] Debate number two: Phonies and cacophonies.

• Alexandra Petri: [09-28] Here's what happened at the second Republican primary debate. Really. Really? My favorite line here is one attributed to DeSantis: "If you measure popularity in number of tears that a candidate has collected from crocodiles and others, I am by far the most popular candidate."

• Andrew Prokop: [09-27] 1 winner and 3 losers from Fox's dud of a second GOP debate:

  • Loser: Vivek Ramaswamy: "At tonight's debate, Ramaswamy's schtick sounded stale."
  • Loser: The moderators: "Dana Perino, Stuart Varney, and Illa Calderón seemed puzzlingly reluctant to have the candidates actually, well, debate each other."
  • Loser: Fox News: "Fox had to reduce its ad time slot prices by hundreds of thousands of dollars for this debate, compared to the first one, because interest was expected to be low."
  • Winner: You know who: "Sorry, Chris Christie, calling him 'Donald Duck' is cheesy and ineffective."

Let me conclude this section with a quote from Jeffrey St Clair (see his "Roaming Charges" below for link) summing up the debate:

The Republican "debate" at the Reagan Library seemed like an exercise in collective madness. And 24 hours and half a bottle of Jameson's later, I still don't know what's crazier, Nikki Haley saying that she'd solve the health care crisis by letting patients negotiate the price of treatment with hospitals and doctors, Tim Scott's assertion that LBJ's Great Society program was harder for black people to survive than slavery or Ron DeSantis' pledge to use the Civil Rights Act to target "left-wing" prosecutors: "I will use the Justice Department to bring civil rights cases against all of those left-wing Soros-funded prosecutors. We're not going to let them get away with it anymore. We want to reverse this country's decline. We need to choose law and order over rioting and disorder."

Trump: While it was unprecedented for a former president to be indicted (for even one felony, much less 91), I think we now have to admit that's merely a historical curiosity, like Dianne Feinstein having been the first woman elected mayor of San Francisco. What is truly unprecedented is that this guy, facing so many indictments under four separate judges (plus more judges in prominent civil cases), is still being allowed to campaign for president, to fly free around the country, to give speeches where he threatens the lives of people he thinks have crossed him, to appear on television shows where he can influence potential jurors, and do this with complete impunity. While everyone knows that defendants are to be considered innocent until a jury finds them guilty, has anyone else under indictment ever been given such lax treatment? Many of them spend long pre-trial periods stuck in jail. (According to this report, there are 427,000 people in local jails who haven't been convicted.) Those who, like Trump, could manage bail, are subject to other numerous other restrictions. Maybe one reason Trump seems to regard himself as above the law is that the courts have allowed him such privileges.

• Mark Alfred/Justin Rohrlich: [09-29] First plea deal in Georgia RICO case is not good news for Trump: Scott Hall to plead guilty and testify about his crime, which is a big part of the foundation for the RICO case. The plea agreement calls for five years probation, $5,000 fine, 200 hours of community service, and other restrictions.

• Lauren Aratani: [10-01] The art of the fraudulent deal? Trump Organization trial set to begin. This is the New York civil case against his business. I'm a little unclear on how this works, given that there is already a "pre-trial judgment ruling that Trump and his co-defendants, including sons Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump, committed financial fraud through faulty financial statements." Aratani previously wrote [09-26] Five key takeaways from Donald Trump's financial fraud case ruling, which says that the "bench trial" will be shorter, because the facts of fraud have already been established, so the focus will be on the amount and nature of the punishment.

• Victoria Bekiempis: [09-30] Trump calls for store robbers to be shot in speech to California Republicans.

• Kyle Cheney: [09-29] Trump's attack on Milley fuels special counsel's push for a gag order.

• Tim Dickinson: [09-29] This 'violence-ready' militia is hiding in plain sight: "White supremacist Active Clubs are growing exponentially -- 'they're who the Proud Boys wanted to be,' one researcher says."

• Gabriella Ferrigine: [09-25] Donald Trump ramps up the GOP's attack on the military with call to execute top US general: Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley. This was followed up by Chauncey DeVega: [09-27] The real reason why Donald Trump wants Gen. Milley to be killed. Rep. Paul Gosar [R-AZ] also chimed in: Trudy Ring: [09-26] Republican Rep. Paul Gosar calls for death to 'sodomy-promoting traitor' Gen. Mark Milley.

• Margaret Hartmann: [09-30] Master dealmaker Melania Trump keeps renegotiating her prenup.

• Sarah Jones: [09-27] The media falls for Trump's labor lies.

• Ed Kilgore: [09-28] With Trump's 2024 rivals out, who's left on his veep list? This is a stupid game, but I was tempted to look. For some reason, the actual names bruited here are all women: Kristi Noem, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Kari Lake, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Joni Ernst, Marsha Blackburn, Elise Stefanik, Katie Britt. I wouldn't give any of them as much as a 2% chance, although if Trump were a somewhat more conventional politician, Ernst wouldn't be a silly choice -- she's won two terms in former-swing-state Iowa, and her sadistic "make 'em squeal" motto should appeal to Trump, or at least his fans. Beyond that, I have no idea. Maybe someone he can share locker room banter with, like Michael Flynn or Ronnie Jackson? In 2016 he picked Pence because he needed someone to reassure the Republican regulars, and none of the candidates groveled more. This time, he is the Republican base, and no one else matters, so the last thing he'll want is some sniveling upstart who wants to step into his shoes. And while he might be up for banging anyone on Kilgore's list, he's never going to trust any of them.

• Heather Digby Parton: [09-27] Trump family fraud exposed -- but Ivanka dodges liability in N.Y. civil case. DJTJ and Eric, on the other hand . . .

• Christian Paz: [09-28] Donald Trump isn't the union legend he's pretending to be.

• Charles P Pierce: [09-27] You've got to read this judge's ruling in Trump's New York fraud case.

• Nia Prater: [09-27] Trump might lose Trump Tower after scathing court ruling.

• Alex N Press: [09-27] Trump is speaking tonight in Michigan at a nonunion auto shop, as a guest of its boss: This was the date of the "debate," after Biden appeared on a UAW picket line.

• Matt Stieb:

  • [09-26] The 5 craziest revelations from Cassidy Hutchinson's book about the Trump White House.

  • [09-27] Trump tells autoworkers 'I don't care what you get' in bizarre non-union rally: In lieu of the Fox debate, Trump went to Detroit, to do something else, I guess. "Over an hour or so, Trump talked trash about Joe Biden and the UAW's leadership."

• David Von Drehle: [09-27] A judge calls out Trump's business lies. Voters can be just as critical.

DeSantis, and other Republicans:

• Jonathan Chait: [09-27] DeSantis forced to say why he enjoys denying health insurance to poor Floridians: Chait paraphrases: "Those people should work harder. Indeed, to give them subsidized access to medical care will sap their incentive. Poor people need motivation to work hard, and denying them the ability to see a doctor and get medicine is part of that necessary motivation." Conservatives believe that getting rich is a reward for virtue, but they also seem to believe that if there are no consequences for not getting rich, no one would bother putting the work in. (Even though most of the people who actually are rich got that way not from having worked hard, but from enjoying privileged access to capital.)

• Ed Kilgore: [09-29] Scott, Haley, and the Radicalization of the 'moderate' Republican: It's ridiculous to call these people "moderate": they are the residue left from the evolution of the South Carolina Republican Party from Strom Thurmond through Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint. Their only saving grace, which each of their predecessors had to some degree, is that they aren't shamelessly stupid panderers. They have some sense of how they look to others, and try to sound respectable. But politically, there as far right as their predecessors (and Haley is about as psychotically hawkish as Graham). Perhaps you could give them some credit for moving beyond Thurmond on race, but perhaps they were just cast to look like it?

• Jasmine Liu: [09-26] Everything you need to know about the right-wing war on books: "Here's your guide to the heroes and villains -- plus a list of the 50 most banned books." Censorship chiefs: Ron DeSantis, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Greg Abbott, Moms for Liberty. Those have definitely gotten more press than the Reading Rebels: Suzette Baker, Debbie Chavez, Summer Boismier, and "Anonymous Utah parent." The books are mostly off my radar, aside from two titles each for Toni Morrison and Ibram X. Kendi.

• Greg Sargent: [09-28] New data on ultra-rich tax cheats wrecks the 'working-class GOP' ruse.

Biden and/or the Democrats:

• Noah Berliatsky: [09-25] Biden is presiding over a labor renaissance: "His solidarity goes beyond symbolism."

• Ben Jacobs: [09-28] Republicans held an impeachment hearing and it turned into a clown show.

• Andrew Prokop: [09-28] Republicans' thin corruption case against Joe Biden, explained.

• Michael Tomasky: [09-29] Impeachment hearing proves even dumb fascists can be dangerous. Cites CNN's Fact check of the hearing, concluding "these people are a joke," but limiting his laughter.

• Laura Wagner: [09-28] The small pro-labor news site that has the Biden White House's ear: More Perfect Union. Looks like there is a lot of good material there (albeit mostly videos).

Legal and criminal matters:

• Ian Millhiser:

  • [09-25] A Supreme Court case about hotel websites could blow up much of US civil rights law: "The Supreme Court hears a civil rights case straight out of a right-wing fever dream."

  • [09-26] The Supreme Court just told Alabama to shut up and listen.

• Jenna Ruddock: [09-25] Prosecutors are going to war with climate protesters: "The far-reaching RICO indictment against Stop Cop City organizers in Atlanta is just the latest example of prosecutors' central role in chilling dissent."

Climate and environment:

• Kate Aronoff:

  • [09-29] NYC is totally unprepared for climate disaster (but has a lot of cops): "If hordes of cops are going to keep polluting New York's increasingly flood-prone subways, the least they could do is grab a bucket and be helpful."

  • [09-29] The White House's two-faced climate rhetoric: "Why do US politicians insist on talking so much about a climate goal they're so far off track from?"

• Matthew Cappucci: [09-28] Ophelia's leftovers to drench Northeast as Philippe and Rina roam tropics.

• Scott Dance: [09-26] One of the most intense El Niños ever observed could be forming.

• Scott Dance/Matthew Cappucci: [09-29] New York inundated with worst floods since 2021.

• Carmen Aguilar Garcia: [09-22] Heat-related deaths in 2022 hit highest level on record in England: More than 4,500 people. It's hard to imagine anyone dying of heat in England, but maybe not being used to it makes them ultra-sensitive. I worked there for a 5-month stretch in the mid-1990s, and do recall one hot day: only about 90°F, but that was hot enough we had to detour off the M11 between London and Cambridge because "the road melted." The chart here shows a previous peak for heat-related deaths in 1995.

• Hiroko Tabuchi/Blacki Migliozzi: [09-25] 'Monster fracks' are getting far bigger. And far thirstier. This is part of a series called Uncharted Waters, about "the causes and consequences of disappearing water."

Economic matters:

• Dean Baker: [09-30] Team billionaire is winning: They have us cursing at markets.

• Robert Kuttner: [09-29] Does Jay Powell want to elect Trump? "Most of the sources of inflation are either the result of the Fed's own policy, or have nothing to do with domestic demand, such as the rising price of oil." Powell is a Republican, initially nominated by Trump. He did a good job of hiding his future as an inflation hawk, getting Biden to nominate him to a second term before coming out. I've always said that Biden made a mistake in not nominating his own person. Same mistake, by the way, that Obama (with Bernanke) and Clinton (with Greenspan) let themselves get talked into, with pretty much the same results (Greenspan's bad enough that Clinton renominated him twice).

• Eric Levitz:

  • [09-25] What Trump gets wrong (and right) about the UAW strike.

  • [09-27] Biden's UAW rally exposes the bankruptcy of Trump's populism.

• Eve Ottenberg: [09-29] More at stake for auto workers than wages and benefits.

• Alissa Wilkinson/Emily Stewart: [09-27] The Hollywood writers' strike is over -- and they won big.

Ukraine War:

• Josh Holder: [09-28] Who's gaining ground in Ukraine? This year, no one. "Despite nine months of bloody fighting, less than 500 square miles of territory have changed hands since the start of the year." If you look down into the details, you'll find that Ukraine gained 143 square miles, and Russia gained 331 square miles, so the title is slightly misleading. Also: "Less territory changed hands in August than in any other month of the war."

• Anatol Lieven: [09-26] Ukraine-Poland row exposes history, limits of devotion.

• Patrick Wintour: [09-30] 'No turning back': How the Ukraine war has profoundly changed the EU: The Russian invasion has led to dramatic new militarism and efforts to shift away from Russia as a source for energy and materials. The US has basically led both efforts, but they could well continue even if the US cut back.

Around the world:

• Masha Gessen: [09-29] The violent end of Nagorno-Karabakh's fight for independence.

• Jonathan Guyer: [09-28] US-China tensions are every country's problem now.

• Adi Saleem: [09-29] The trial of Subhas Nair: Race, class, and ideology in Singapore.

• Richard Silverstein:

  • [09-29] Azerbaijan: Israeli arms sales, greased palms, ethnic conflict: "Israel sold tens of billions in weapons to the country's corrupt dictator, permitting him to conquer Nagorno-Karabakh."

  • [09-29] From meeting Musk to the UN, Netanyahu's US roadshow was paved with Israel normalisation.

Dianne Feinstein: The Senator (D-CA) died Thursday, at 90, after more than 30 years in the Senate. She had a mixed legacy, which had soured lately as her absences kept Democrats from confirming many Biden appointees.

• Liza Featherstone: [09-30] Dianne Feinstein helped lead the Democratic Party's neoliberal turn.

• Sarah Jones: [09-29] Dianne Feinstein blazed a trail to ruin.

• Ed Kilgore: [09-29] Gavin Newsom made filling Dianne Feinstein's seat even harder: I think it's always a mistake to announce ahead of time that you're going to limit your future choices to people of a certain type. In theory, consider everyone, pick someone, claim that's the best possible choice.

• Rebecca Traister: [09-29] The institutionalist: "Dianne Feinstein fought for gun control, civil rights, and abortion access for half a century. Where did it all go wrong: Profile originally published June 6, 2022, now updated.

Robert Menendez: Senator (D-NJ), was prosecuted for corruption several years ago, beat the charges, managed to get himself reëlected, and caught again.

• Aaron Blake: [09-26] The GOP's defenses of Bob Menendez, and what they ignore. They may not have gotten to where they automatically sympathize with all criminals, but corrupt politicians are definitely their soft spot. (Also tax cheats. Except for Hunter Biden, of course.)

• Bob Hennelly: [09-28] Bob Menendez and the gold bars: A short history of New Jersey corruption.

• Robert Kuttner: [09-27] How to oust Menendez: The Agnew precedent: Good idea, but I don't see this happening, mostly because nobody is that desperate to get rid of Menendez: Garland probably likes the idea of being as tough on a Democrat as on Trump, and Republicans would cry foul if Menendez got off on a "sweetheart deal" while Trump still has to face trial. (Cf. their reaction to the Hunter Biden plea deal, which was a much smaller case than the ones against Menendez and Trump.)

• Branko Marcetic: [09-27] Bob Menendez isn't merely corrupt. He carried water for a brutal dictator. Shouldn't that be plural? Menendez got caught taking money from Egypt, but he's been a dependable supporter of other nominal allies with troubled connections (Israel and Saudi Arabia get mentions here, but not Latin America, where his antipathy to anything leftist knows no bounds).

• Timothy Noah: [09-29] Why is the GOP suddenly defending Bob Menendez? "From Trump on down, they're speaking out on behalf of a Democratic senator buffeted by accusations of corruption --he's just one more Biden deep state victim."

• Henry Olsen: [09-27] Bob Menendez is right not to step down: One of the conservative hack pundits to rally behind Menendez, pleading "let the justice system play out as it's supposed to," urging him to hang in there even past conviction until all his appeals are exhausted, and assuring him that "there's little proof that a senator's indictment affects voters' decisions in other races." He offers the example of Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam, who resisted pressure to resign after embarrassing photos from a yearbook came to light, but Northam wasn't indicted, and was barely distracted from doing his job. The charges against Menendez are very serious, and derive directly from his abuse of the power given him by his job. While the indictments may cramp his ability to collect further bribes, his job is one where even the appearance of corruption diminishes the office. It is this very sense of taint that has led many Democrats to call for his resignation. To see Republicans rally behind Menendez testifies to how they've evolved to celebrate his kind of corruption.

Other stories:

David Atkins: [09-27] America needs a true liberal media: "Our crisis of democracy is exacerbated by conservative misinformation. Time for a balanced media diet." Of course, he has a lot to complain about, but couldn't he put it better? I shouldn't have to parse the difference between "liberal" as an adjective and "liberal" (or "liberalism") as a noun, and explain why a "liberal media" isn't just a propaganda outlet for liberalism (as conservative media is for conservatism). If we had an honest media dedicated to rooting out misinformation from any source, it would easily find ten times as much emanating from right-wing interest groups (which it would clearly label as such). Atkins cites several examples of polls where scary large numbers of Americans believe things that are plainly false. That such numbers persist goes a long way toward indicting the media for failing to keep us informed.

On the other hand, another sense of "liberal" is that it provides equal credence to all views, regardless of truth, merit or ulterior motives. This was, for instance, the view Marcuse et al. put forth in A Critique of Pure Tolerance (1965). In light of this, one can be as critical as Atkins is of the present facts and draw the opposite conclusion, that the problem we have today is that the media, with its relentless balancing and its credulous repetition of blatant falsehoods, is simply too liberal.

Zack Beauchamp: [09-24] Is America uniquely vulnerable to tyranny? Review of a new book, Tyranny of the Minority: Why American Democracy Reached the Breaking Point, by Steve Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, whose previous book, the comparative study How Democracies Die, was taken as a landmark among liberals who worry more about the formal political institutions than about government reflecting the interests of most people.

Nina Burleigh: [09-26] Are we in the last days of Fox News? "Michael Wolff's new book on the Murdochs is full of juicy details, but its predictions may be off." The book is called The Fall: The End of Fox News.

Joshua Green: [08-27] How social justice activists lost the plot: A review of Fredrik DeBoer's new book, How Elites Ate the Social Justice Movement, "an entreaty to white, college-educated progressives: Stop obsessing over identity and language and start fighting for working people." I took a brief look at this book when assembling my latest Book Roundup and couldn't decide what to make of it: he's reputed to be a leftist, but he spends most of his time attacking others on the left side of "social justice" issues, possibly for not being leftist enough (on economic issues? for leftists of some vintage what else is there?). I'm not engaged enough to recognize much less care about many of the complaints lodged against today's younger generation on the left, but back in my day (c. 1970) I ran into similar problems, where comfortably well-off young people got worked up over other people's problems without having the grounding of knowing their own problems. (I was a rare working class kid, and pathological introvert, in an elite university, so I never had that luxury.) I have no idea how well, or how badly, DeBoer navigates problems with his fellow leftists. Green, however, ends with one piece of reasonable advice: "If they'd focus on electing Democrats, they'd finally be in a position to deliver for those groups, rather than just bicker over whose turn it is to talk next." I would add that while I don't think leftists should adopt bad positions just to get around, the only policy improvements that are achievable are ones that pass through the Democratic Party, so that's where you need to do your practical work.

• Anthony L Fisher: [09-30] Why the 2020 social justice revolutions failed: Interview with DeBoer on his book, steering the discussion toward the 2020 BLM protests and the coincident looting ("riots"). Maybe DeBoer has something specific to say about all that, but that wasn't obvious to me from what I previously read. I wouldn't say that the protests failed -- they moved several meters significantly, especially in that the cop who killed George Floyd and the cops who aided and abetted the murder have been convicted of serious crimes, which is never expected when police kill civilians -- and I also wouldn't say that where they failed, they did so due to the liberal elite syndrome I take DeBoer to be critical of. What was possible from those protests was limited by Trump, other right-wing political figures, including police and vigilantes, responded so negatively, often deliberately attempting to provoke riots (which, based on much experience, they assumed would be blamed on the protesters).

• Becca Rothfeld: [09-01] Should progressives want the support of the ruling classes? A critical review of DeBoer's book, mentioned in the Fisher interview above, the author dismissed by DeBoer as "exactly the kind of person that is being indicted in the book." [PS: On closer examination, this strikes me as a pretty good review of the book.]

• Freddie deBoer: [0-25] AOC is just a regular old Democrat now. I saw this at the time, and didn't think it was worth reporting on, but since we're talking about the author now, it shines as much light on him as on her. The theme is not something I'd lose any sleep over.

Tyler Austin Harper: [09-28] Ibram X. Kendi's fall is a cautionary tale -- so was his rise: Flagged for possible future reference, as I'm not close enough to this story to have an opinion. I will say that I fifty-plus years ago I read two important historical works on racism in the early 1970s: Winthrop Jordan's White Over Black: American Attitudes Toward the Negro, 1550-1812 (1968), and David Brion Davis, The Problem of Slavery in Western Culture (1966), which if memory serves argued that racism wasn't Stamped From the Beginning (the title of Kendi's big book) but was developed over time, primarily to justify chattel slavery in the Americas, and the profits derived therefrom. I read quite a bit more back then, covering later history as well as contemporary books like Soul on Ice and The Autobiography of Malcolm X.

But it had been quite a while when Kendi's book came out, so I thought it might be useful to get a more contemporary reading of Jordan's domain. But when I looked at the book, I decided I didn't need or particularly want it. I had, by then, read lots about Thomas Jefferson's racism (and for that matter, Lincoln's), but didn't see much point in dwelling on it. But the big turn off was the section on major aboltionist William Lloyd Garrison. Looking at the Amazon preview now, my reaction may have been hasty: surely the later chapters on W.E.B. DuBois and Angela Davis weren't meant to be simple exposés of racist ideas like chapters on Cotton Mather and Jefferson? But then, what were they? Kendi followed up with an explicitly political book, and evidently built a mini-empire on his reputation. That could have been good, bad, irrelevant, or some combination thereof.

Sean Illing: [09-26] Naomi Klein on her doppelganger (and yours): Another interview, promoting her new book, Doppelganger: A Trip Into the Mirror World.

Sarah Jones: [09-24] The dark side of courtship: "Shannon Harris's relationship was held up as a model for millions of Evangelicals. Now she's reclaiming her story."

David Masciotra: [09-26] What the Clinton haters on the left get wrong: "A new book epitomizes the risible belief that the 42nd president betrayed liberals and the 1990s were a right-wing hellscape." The book is A Fabulous Failure: The Clinton Presidency and the Transformation of American Capitalism, by Nelson Lichtenstein and Judith Stein. I note this in passing, and also that the first publication to take such offense against such a blight on Clinton's good name is the one where the term "neoliberalism" was first coined. Somehow I doubt a book where the authors juxtaposed "fabulous" and "failure" is simply "untruths they've written [to] bolster the cynicism that undermines the trust vital to the survival of the American experiment."

The first point anyone needs to understand is that Clinton pioneered a new political path by trying not to fight Reagan but to outflank him: to show leaders that Democrats in power would be even better for business than Republicans. That Clinton won gave his argument an air of gospel after a brutal decade, which only deepened the more hysterically Republicans attacked him. However, his two presidential wins were largely wiped out by losing Congress, and with it the ability to legislate anything beyond his pro-business and anti-crime initiatives.

On the other hand, his failures -- mistakes and, especially, missed opportunities -- only grew. Listing them would take a book (probably even longer than this one). Compounding Reagan's turn toward increasing inequality is probably the top of the list. Or failing to trim back America's imperial overreach to secure a truly international peace -- today's conflicts with Russia and China, as well as the long war against the Middle East, are easily traced back to his failures. Or maybe we should wonder why Al Gore wasn't allowed to work on climate change when it wasn't yet too late, but was tasked instead with "reinventing government," which mostly meant making it more profitable for lobbyists. Or maybe we should ask why he stripped the Democratic Party down to a personal cult-of-personality, allowing Republicans to repeatedly rebound from disaster every time they came close to the lever of power?

Dylan Matthews: [09-26] 40 years ago today, one man saved us from world-ending nuclear war: A Russian, Lt. Col. Stanislav Petrov, who was monitoring Russia's ICBM detection system, which had determined "with high probability" that the US had launched five Minutemen missiles at the Soviet Union. It hadn't, but two years of constant saber-rattling under Reagan, on top of worsening US-Soviet relations under Jimmy Carter (or should I say Zbigniew Brzezinski?), along with internal turmoil that might suggest weakness, left top Soviet circles more in fear of an American attack than ever before. David Hoffman wrote a book about this: The Dead Hand: The Untold Story of the Cold War Arms Race & Its Dangerous Legacy (2009).

Sara Morrison:

• [09-28] Net neutrality is back, but it's not what you think.

• [09-26] The government's case to break up Amazon, explained: "The Federal Trade Commission, led by longtime Amazon critic Lina Khan, finally makes its move." This particular case focuses on Amazon Marketplace -- the most obvious place to start, I agree. I could probably write a lot on this, but some other time. There are a lot of things I like about Amazon, but the potential for abuse is huge, and doesn't loom purely in the future. I cited a David Dayen piece last week, and it deserves to be mentioned again in light of this suit:

  • David Dayen: [09-21] Amazon's $185 billion pay-to-play system: "A new report shows that Amazon now takes 45 percent of all third-party sales on its website, part of the company's goal to become a monopoly gatekeeper for economic transactions."

  • Will Oremus: [09-27] Lina Khan's Amazon lawsuit is nothing like her famous law article: "The FTC chair has traded some youthful idealism for pragmatism as she takes on the case of a lifetime."

Jonah Raskin: [09-29] "I am not now, nor have I ever been": Musings on communism and anti-communism. I've known a few American communists, or at least a few of their "red diaper baby" children. All good people, as far as I can tell.

Heather Cox Richardson: [09-26] The fight for our America: Excerpt, or maybe a précis, from her forthcoming book Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America. The setup: "There have always been two Americas. One based in religious zeal, mythology, and inequality; and one grounded in the rule of the people and the pursuit of equality. This next election may determine which one prevails." My first cavil here was over the word "prevails": recent elections (at least since 2000, and arguably since 1968 -- the landslides of 1972 and 1984 now look like flukes, as does the lesser margin of 2008) have turned out to be pretty indecisive. There is little reason to think that 2024 will turn out differently: a Trump-Biden rematch is unlikely to turn out much differently than in 2020, but Republicans have structural advantages in the Senate, the House, and the Electoral College that could flip the popular vote -- further reinforcing the current partisan divide over democracy itself.

Still, in searching for a better term than "prevails," I find myself considering the more extreme "survives." While electoral results have remained ambiguous, the stakes for (and fears of) losing have only grown more urgent. Republicans have already used their narrow margins to establish a Supreme Court supermajority, which has already resulted in the loss of fundamental rights and will continue to frustrate efforts of elected Democrats to address important policy issues. Give them more power, and they'll continue their efforts to fortify their power bases and impose their will on a disempowered people.

Democrats are right to fear such authoritarianism, and are right that the antidote is a renewed faith in democracy, but their defense of democracy has been frustratingly difficult, because Democrats rarely think of power in the broad sense that Republicans understand: the power of business and money, of media, of social institutions like churches, of culture (one area they have been least effective at controlling, and therefore one they're most paranoid about, hence their recent, seemingly desperate, stress on the "war against woke"). More often than not, Democrats have appealed to moneyed interests, even to the point of sacrificing traditional allies like unions, and this has tattered their reputation as champions of the people.

Richardson's "two Americas" may serve as generic shorthand for the two highly polarized parties, but while identities align with parties, the underlying philosophies are more or less present and at tension in most people. By far the most important is the split on equality: the right views the world as necessarily (or rightly) inequal and hierarchical, where each person has a station, and order is maintained by popular acceptance (and, often, by force); the left views all people as fundamentally equal, at least in rights, and ideally in opportunities. The left naturally leans toward democracy, where government is constituted to act in the popular interest. The right leans toward dictatorship (originally of monarchs, although any strongman able to impose order to save their hierarchy will do), and distrusts democracy, suspecting that if given the chance, the majority would end the privileges of those atop the hierarchy.

By the way, liberals are focused on the rights and ambitions of individuals. Whether they lean right or left depends mostly on the conservative hierarchy is in admitting talented upstarts -- for many would like to live like princes, but if they are locked out, they're happy to tear the hierarchy down, and willing to appeal to the masses for help in doing so. Liberals are disrupters, which is why conservatives loathe them, but as long as they are sufficiently corruptible, they can be co-opted. But until they get bought off, they are likely to inspire more widespread ambitions -- which is why we still admire Jefferson, Lincoln, and Roosevelt (and wanted to admire Obama).

It is important to remember that nearly everything we cherish about our past was the work of liberals aspiring to the greater (more universal) good. (Which is to say, of moves toward the left, though often of people not strongly committed to the left.) Also that every advance has been met with conservative reaction, which was generally flexible enough to admit a select few in order to cut short the hopes of the many. Richardson groups religious zeal and mythology with the side of inequality. They are actually tools of a hierarchy which, given America's founding as a liberal/mass revolt against aristocracy, cannot be defended on its own terms. Rather, the right, in order to maintain any plausibility at all, has to spin a mythic past rooted in old fashioned religion and pioneering entrepreneurial spirit -- the new hierarchy that rose to replace the aristocracy dispatched by the Revolution.

Jeffrey St Clair: [09-29] Roaming Charges: Our man in Jersey: Starts with Robert Menendez as a Le Carré character, "New Jersey's own apex con man, whose personal embellishments and political fictions have become so labryinthine that now that he's been caught with gold bars in his closet, he can't even get his own life story straight."

In other items, he notes that the US drug overdose rate, in the fifty years since the War on Drugs was launched in 1973, has ("what a smashing success it has been!") increased from 3.0 per 100,000 to 32.4.

Marcela Valdes: [10-01] Why can't we stop unauthorized immigration? Because it works. "Our broken immigration system is still the best option for many migrants -- and U.S. employers."

Jason Wilson: [10-01] 'Red Caesarism' is rightwing code -- and some Republicans are listening: This piece introduced me to a recent book by Kevin Slack: War on the American Republic: How Liberalism Became Despotism, which argues that America has been destroyed by three waves of liberals: "Teddy Roosevelt's Anglo-Protestant progressive social gospelers, who battled trusts and curbed immigration; Franklin Roosevelt's and Lyndon Johnson's secular liberals, who forged a government-business partnership and promoted a civil rights agenda; and the 1960s radicals, who protested corporate influence in the Great Society, liberal hypocrisy on race and gender, and the war in Vietnam," and who finally cemented their power with "the 'great awokening' that began under Barack Obama." The result: "an incompetent kleptocracy is draining the wealthiest and most powerful people in history, thus eroding the foundations of its own empire."

I don't know how I missed this tome in my list of paranoid rants tacked onto the end of my Book Roundup entry on Christopher Rufo, as it's basically Rufo's thesis backed up with more historical special pleading. I do wonder, though, how you could get from Grover Cleveland's America to world-topping empire and wealth except through the progressive machinations of the Roosevelts and their followers.

The Amazon page for Slack's book doesn't mention "Red Caesarism," which seems to be the idea that Trump should seize power next chance he gets, and dispense with all the other trappings of democracy. At this point, the article shifts to Michael Anton's The Stakes, about which I previously wrote:

Michael Anton: The Stakes: America at the Point of No Return (2020, Regnery): Publisher is all the signal you need, but here's some background: Anton wrote a famous essay calling 2016 "The Flight 93 Election," because he figured it was better to storm the cockpit and crash the plane than to let Hillary Clinton win. He explains "the stakes" here: "The Democratic Party has become the party of 'identity politics' -- and every one of those identities is defined against a unifying national heritage of patriotism, pride in America's past, and hope for a shared future. . . . Against them is a divided Republican Party. Gravely misunderstanding the opposition, old-style Republicans still seek bipartisanship and accommodation, wrongly assuming that Democrats care about playing by the tiresome old rules laid down in the Constitution and other fundamental charters of American liberty."

While I'm skeptical both of Trump's chances of winning in 2024, and even more so of his ability to seize total personal control of the government (as, sorry but there is no clearer example, Hitler did upon being appointed chancellor in 1933). Still, it is pretty clear that he would like to, and that he will go out of his way to hire people who have ideas about how to go about it (some of whom he'll have to spring from jail), but these will largely be the same sorts that talked him into thinking Jan. 6 was a bully idea.

Zack Beauchamp announced: "I'm really excited to announce that I have written my first book!" The title is: The Reactionary Spirit: How America's Most Insidious Political Tradition Swept the World. I'd be real tempted to order a copy, but right now I'm bummed that there sems to be another year until publication date (next year, maybe fall). I've always imagined that if I could get my book written in the next 3-4 months, say, it could still appear several months before the 2024 election.

Beauchamp has been writing more/less philosophical pieces in Vox for several years now. I've followed these with interest, as they dovetail nicely with my own thinking. He described his book in multiple tweets, collected and numbered here:

1. Democracy as a system is based the idea that all people are political equals. As such, it empowers people to challenge existing social hierarchies through the political system -- which we saw, to a globally unprecedented degree, in the second half of the 20th century.
2. This forces defenders of existing hierarchy to make a choice: fight social change through the system, or turn against democracy itself. The impulse to make the latter choice is what I call "the reactionary spirit," and it is at the heart of today's global democratic crisis.
3. The reactionary spirit has threatened democracy since its earliest modern stirrings. But today's reactionary politics is different in a crucial respect: it pretends to be democratic.
4. In The Reactionary Spirit, I argue that this reflects democracy's ideological triumphs. While reactionaries in the past openly rallied for alternative systems, like monarchy or fascism, today's reactionaries understand that democracy remains ideologically dominant.
5. This is a very longstanding pattern in one place -- the United States, a country whose home-grown authoritarian tradition has always claimed to be democratic. The 20th and 21st centuries, I argue, have seen an Americanization of global reactionary politics in this key respect.
6. The Reactionary Spirit engages deeply with reactionary political movements and thinkers, like John C. Calhoun and Carl Schmitt. It focuses on four case studies to illustrate the nature of our global crisis: the US, Hungary, Israel, and India.
7. There's much more in the book, of course. I'll keep talking about it till publication date -- looking to be late summer or early fall 2024. The Reactionary Spirit synthesizes a decade of thinking and reporting about democratic crisis. I am so excited to share it with you.

I also see that a book is coming out in January, 2024, by Hunter Walker and Luppe B. Luppen, titled The Truce: Progressives, Centrists, and the Future of the Democratic Party (from WW Norton). The key here isn't that the leftists became reasonable -- we've long been eager to work on real even if piecemeal solutions -- but that the centrists finally started to realize that their approaches, which most often tried to incorporate right-wing talking points while slightly toning them down, weren't working, either for winning elections or for making tangible improvements (which are always hard when you're not winning elections).

As I was trying to wrap this up, I ran across this Nate Silver tweet:

I am a statistician. I'm also a statistician with a good bullshit detector.

There is little variation in age by state. And to the extent there is, it doesn't argue in your favor. The four oldest states are West Virginia (very red), Florida (pretty red), Maine (pretty blue) and Vermont (very blue).

What are their COVID death rates (per 1M population) since Feb. 1, 2021 (i.e. post-vaccine?):

• West Virginia: 3454
• Florida: 2992
• Maine: 1881
• Vermont: 1210

These states all have the ~same elderly population, and yet there are huge variations in COVID death rates that line up 1:1 with partisan differences in vaccine uptake.

In another tweet, Silver noted:

Republicans have the same death rates as Democrats until the introduction of vaccines, then they start dying at much higher rates. That's a very useful first approximation.

Sep 2023